Assume you work as budget analyst for City of Blue Ridge and you are preparing the budget for Fiscal Year 2020-2021. The data of tax revenue of past 10 years have been obtained as following. You are using two of the three different forecast models - 3-year moving average (with the alpha 0.4), linear regression trend project, and exponential smoothing.

(1) What would be your forecasted revenue for 2020-2021based on your forecasting models, respectively? I believe the forecasting model to use in forecasted revenue for 2020-2021 is the Time-Series methods, which can estimate the future aspects of a business, non-profit organization, and federal state and local government. Also, this method can provi1de a forecast of exponential smoothing for 10 years, which is shown in the chart below.

(2) Which model gives you the better estimate? In other words, which model would you choose? Provide a justification for your choice.