Question
Assuming current USDJPY exchange rate at 105 and annual volatility (standard deviation) at 12%, what is the probability of finding the USDJPY exchange rate below
Assuming current USDJPY exchange rate at 105 and annual volatility (standard deviation) at 12%, what is the probability of finding the USDJPY exchange rate below 95 one year from now? What is the probability if the period was three months instead of one year (260 trading days, both answers rounded to the nearest unit)?
hint: One only needs to ascertain how many standard deviations away is the outcome from the mean. Once that number is obtained, probability can easily be calculated using the cumulative distribution function of standard normal distribution.
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