Assumption I am making w/o data: Infection rates are the same for VAX (vaccinated) or NVX (non-vaccinated) folks. P(infected in 2021) = 1/20 Probabilities I roughly determined from data P(Seriously ILL | infected and NVX) = 1/50 P(Seriously ILL | infected and VAX) = 1/750 P(death | infected and NVX) = 1/100 P(death | infected and VAX) = 1/2000 P(Seriously ILL due to VAX shot) = 1/1,000,000 P(death due to VAX shot) = 1/10,000,000 Problem A: Determine the probability of serious illness if you get vaccinated. Let's write this as P(Seriously [LL I VAX) Problem B: Determine the probability of death if you get vaccinated. Let's write this as P(death I VAX) NOTE: For the above, there are two ways to die or get seriously ill from the vaccine shot, or from Covid. Problem C: Determine the probability of serious illness if you don't get vaccinated. Let's write this as P(Seriously [LL I NVX) Problem D: Determine the probability of death if you don't get vaccinated. Let's write this as P(death I N VX ) NOTE: For C and 0, there is only one way to die or get seriousiy iii - from Covid