Attached is a Time Series data on Fiji's Consumer Price Index (CPI) between 2017 - 2020 sourced from the Fiji Bureau of Statistics (FBoS).

Using this data, please answer the following questions: 1. Using the ratio to moving average (MA), calculate the seasonally adjusted indices for each quarter beginning Q1, 2017

2. Establish a regression trend line in the form of Y = a + bX + ? by estimating the values for 'a' and 'b'.

3. Using the trend line in (2), calculate a seasonally adjusted trend estimate for Q2, 2020

G Housing, Water, Health Transpo Food and Non- Alcoholic Clothing and Furnishings, Hhld Equip. & Division alcoholic Beverages, Footwear Elec., Gas and Beverages Tobacco and Other Fuels Routine Hhid All Maint Items Narcotics 21.7 126.8 50.0 14.1 Weight 1000.0 347.1 105.7 9.8 2.1 4.5 0.4 2.8 Annual 2015 1.4 4.8 27.0 1.2 -5.0 -0.5 4.1 5.9 Average 2016 3.8 31.8 0.2 2.0 0.8 -0.4 2017 3.3 -2.1 3.4 19.4 0.6 2.1 -0.2 -1.3 2018 4.1 18 4.9 5.5 1.0 -0.1 0.9 -0.4 2019 41.4 1.3 -0.6 1.4 -0.4 20 2017 January 6.S 7.1 1.3 2.8 -0.3 February 4.3 42.9 0.6 5.5 3.1 48.4 2.0 0.6 3.4 0.1 March 5.6 2.2 0.5 April 4.1 -3.5 44.2 -0.4 4.5 -0.6 4.5 0.4 0.4 MAY 2.5 -4.8 28.9 -6.0 25.8 -0.3 4.5 0.1 -1.3 June 2.0 2.2 0.4 -1.3 July 2.0 -6.2 30.5 -0.3 August 27.8 -0.8 0.5 1.2 2.0 -5.2 1.9 -4.2 23.6 -0.1 1.9 0.4 -1.2 September 2.1 0.7 October 2.6 -3.7 27.5 -0.9 2.2 -0.3 2.5 0.9 November 25.4 -0.6 -3.0 2.2 0.5 December 2.8 .2.8 26.1 0.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 -6.0 23.5 0.4 2.9 2.0 2018 January 1.6 -2.0 21.4 2.9 -0.7 February 2.3 0.5 March 2.6 0.2 16.4 0.2 2.9 0.0 -0.9 April 4.0 6.1 17.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 May 5.1 6.4 23.3 0.5 4.6 5.1 22.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 -1.3 June 47 4.1 21.6 0.4 2.3 -0.1 2.4 July 4.3 3.3 20.3 1.4 2.3 August 4.9 18.6 0.9 2.3 0.2 -2.3 September 4.6 7.8 2.6 October 5.2 16.1 1.5 1.0 -2.3 7.2 16.6 0.2 2.6 0.7 -2.1 November 5.1 17.2 0.2 37 10 -2.2 December 4.8 5.1 45 0.4 -3.1 46 2019 January 5.1 7.9 17. 0.7 0.4 -1.1 February 5.1 10.4 16.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 2.0 48 March 4.0 7.7 14.4 13.1 0.5 0.3 -1.2 49 April 2.1 2.0 2.1 4.7 8.0 0.7 0.3 -1.2 50 May 7.8 -0.1 June 2.8 7.3 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 52 July 0.7 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.1 1.2 5.6 0.S 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 53 August 1.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 54 September 0.4 3.3 0.0 0.7 0.9 55 October 0.9 1.2 2.3 November 0.3 2.9 2.6 1.0 0.5 56 4.3 19 10 0.1 57 December 0.9 2.8 58 0.2 0.1 59 2020 January -1.9 -1. 1.3 2.4 -0.3 0.0 60 February -3.0 -6.1 0.1 0.6 61 March -2.8 -5.6 0.7 0.8 62 April -1.3 1.0 -8.7 0.3 63 MAY -17 -1.0 64Q L M N P R J K NATIONAL PERIOD IN PREVIOUS YEAR Health Transport Commun Recreation Education Restaurants Miscella- ication & Culture & Hotels beous Goods & Services 75.3 30.5 138.7 44.2 16.1 29.8 14.1 -3.7 0.1 0.6 -1.7 1.5 4.1 2.8 -3.9 -1.5 8.2 -0.8 4.1 -1.6 3.5 0.7 2.9 -0.6 -0.4 1.8 -03 -0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.0 -1.3 2.0 0.2 0.1 13.8 0.2 4.8 0.2 14 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 9.0 2.3 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 -0.6 0.5 -0.3 0.0 2.8 -0.5 3.4 0.0 3.2 -03 -02 0.0 2.8 -0.2 0.4 -1.3 3.3 -03 -0.4 0.0 2.2 -0.3 -1.3 1.8 -0.3 -2.1 0.0 3.3 -0.4 -1.2 1.8 -0.3 -1.0 0.0 3.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 2.9 -0.8 -1.2 1.9 2.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 2.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 2.0 -0.2 -0.3 DO 2.9 .0.9 0.2 0.4 3.0 1.0 0.6 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 -0.6 .0.7 14 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 -0.4 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 36 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 -0.5 -0.7 -13 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 -03 0.0 -2.4 2.4 0.0 1.1 -2.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.1 -23 2.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.3 -2.3 3.3 0.1 0.4 ).0 1.1 0.3 -2.1 3.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 -2.2 3.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.7 -3.1 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 -1.1 0.9 -15.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 -2.0 0.9 -15.2 0.4 5.2 -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -15.2 0.4 5.2 -0.1 -0.2 -15.2 0.2 5.2 0.2 0.0 -1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -15.2 0.0 5.2 0.3 0.2 0.S 0.3 -15.0 0.0 5.2 0.3 0.S 0.8 0.4 -15.0 0.0 5.2 0.3 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 -15.0 0.0 5.2 0.9 -0.9 -15.0 0.1 5.2 0.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 -15.0 0.1 5.2 0.3 3.7 -15.0 5.2 0.9 3.7 0.1 -0.5 1.1 -15.0 0.0 5.2 1.9 4.5 59 0.1 4.4 0.2 0.0 1.9 4.9 60 0.0 0.0 61 0.6 4.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 1.4 is in i 0.0 0.0 62 0.8 3.4 0.9 0.0 0.9 63 0.3 -0.4B C D G AllItems Annual 2014 100.0 Average 2015 101.4 2016 105.3 2017 108.8 Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics 2018 113. Assumptions: 2019 115.3 1. March, June, September and December figures will be equal to t the quater. Example: In 2017, the Q1 ALL items = 108.8 10 2017 January 108.7 February 108.6 2. Figures represent Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all goods and se March 108. produced in Fiji from 2017 - 2020 13 Apri 109.1 May 108.5 Q2 Tune 108. July 108.5 August 109.0 03 September 109. 19 October 109.2 20 November 108.9 04 21 December 109.3 22 23 2018 January 110.4 24 February 111.1 Q1 25 March 111.6 26 Apri 113. 27 May 114.0 Q2 28 June 113.1 29 July 113.6 30 August 113.7 Q3 31 September 114. 32 October 114.9 33 November 114.5 Q4 34 December 114.6 35 36 2019 January 116.0 37 February 116.8 Q1 38 March 116. 39 Apri 115.9 40 May 116.4 Q2 41 June 116. 42 July 114.4 43 August 115.1 Q3 44 September 114.7 45 October 113.9 46 November 114.1 04 47 December 113.6 48 49 2020 January 113.8 50 February 113.3 Q1 51 Marc 112.9 52 Apri 1 14. 53 May 114.4 54 55 56 57 58 59 60