Attendance at Orlandos newest Disney$-$like attraction, Minecraft World, has been as follows:

QUARTER

GUESTS $($IN THOUSANDS$)$

QUARTER

GUESTS $($IN THOUSANDS$)$

Winter $2019$

$73$

Summer $2020$

$124$

Spring $2019$

$104$

Fall $2020$

$52$

Summer $2019$

$168$

Winter $2021$

$89$

Fall $2019$

$74$

Spring $2021$

$146$

Winter $2020$

$65$

Summer $2021$

$205$

Spring $2020$

$82$

Fall $2021$

$98$

Compute the seasonal indexes

Which quarter has the largest change in the number of guests?

Use the Nave method to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of $2022.$

Use $3-$quarter moving average to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of $2022.$

Use exponential smoothing model to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of $2022.$ Assume a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}20.$

Use the trend projection model to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of $2022.$

Compare the three forecast methods you have used and recommend the forecast for Winter of $2022.$

Discuss the trend projection model for this problem.