Average electricty bill, per household	t	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
2019	550.89	0	1	0	0	0
	280.65	1	0	1	0	0
	350.98	2	0	0	1	0
	300.62	3	0	0	0	1
2020	567.42	4	1	0	0	0
	289.07	5	0	1	0	0
	361.51	6	0	0	1	0
	309.64	7	0	0	0	1
2021	584.44	8	1	0	0	0
	297.74	9	0	1	0	0
	372.35	10	0	0	1	0
	318.93	11	0	0	0	1
2022	601.97	12	1	0	0	0
	306.67	13	0	1	0	0
	383.53	14	0	0	1	0
	328.50	15	0	0	0	1
2023	620.03	16	1	0	0	0
	310.58	17	0	1	0	0
	450.67	18	0	0	1	0

Question 1:

The researcher has asked you to analyse the relationship between household electricity bills with trend, t, and seasonal dummies of Q1, Q2 and Q3.

A researcher is interested in the relationship of quarterly average electricity bill, per household, over time.

She collected the average quarterly electricity bills per household, starting with t = 0 for Quarter 1 of 2019.

The data is in the sheet named "Question 1 data time series".

Please answer the following question in your Group.

a)

Create a MLR of electricity bill on t, Q1, Q2 and Q3.

b)

Write the regression equation.

c)

Interpret the coefficient of Q1.

d)

Comparing seasonal components only, which quarter has the lowest seasonal component for an electricity bill? Briefly explain.

e)

This researcher would like you to estimate the quarterly electricity bill for Q2 of 2024.

f)

Comment on the reliability of your estimate.