In April of 2018, Ford announced it would eliminate most car model production in the United States by 2022.

The Company

Ford Motor Company, commonly known as Ford, is an American multinational automaker that has its main headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. It was founded by Henry Ford and incorporated on June 16, 1903. The company sells automobiles and commercial vehicles under the Ford brand, and most luxury cars under the Lincoln brand. Ford also owns Brazilian SUV manufacturer Troller, an 8% stake in Aston Martin of the United Kingdom and a 32% stake in Jiangling Motors. It also has joint-ventures in China (Changan Ford), Taiwan (Ford Lio Ho), Thailand (AutoAlliance Thailand), Turkey (Ford Otosan), and Russia (Ford Sollers). The company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is controlled by the Ford family; they have minority ownership but the majority of the voting power.

Ford is the second-largest U.S.-based automaker (behind General Motors) and the fifth-largest in the world (behind Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai-Kia and General Motors) based on 2015 vehicle production. At the end of 2010, Ford was the fifth largest automaker in Europe.[10] The company went public in 1956 but the Ford family, through special Class B shares, still retain 40 percent voting rights During the financial crisis at the beginning of the 21st century, it struggled financially, but it has since returned to profitability.[12] Ford was the eleventh-ranked overall American-based company in the 2018 Fortune 500 list, based on global revenues in 2017 of $156.7 billion. In 2008, Ford produced 5.532 million automobiles[14] and employed about 213,000 employees at around 90 plants and facilities worldwide.

The Decision

If you’re looking to buy a car from Ford, you’ll soon have only one choice: a Mustang.

Faced with plunging demand and declining profits from its passenger car lineup, Ford will shift its resources to the booming side of the market: pickups, SUVs and crossover-utility vehicles, said CEO Jim Hackett late on Wednesday.IL 28, 201801:52

By 2022, Ford will eliminate such familiar nameplates as the full-size Taurus, midsize Fusion and subcompact Fiesta. It will continue producing the Mustang, the most popular vehicle in the sports coupe segment that has retained a sort of cult status.

“We’re going to feed the healthy parts of our business and deal decisively with the areas that destroy value,” Hackett said during a conference call. “We’re starting to understand what we need to do and making clear decisions there.”

The Ford Focus will only be offered in the U.S. market as a crossover — but will be built in China. That frees up the Wayne, Michigan, assembly plant to start rolling out two new light truck models: the Ranger pickup and the Bronco SUV — both reviving nameplates that Ford had dropped in years past. All told, the automaker plans to add five new SUVs over the next two years, as well as the midsize Ranger pickup.

The rebirth of the Ranger underscores the surge in light truck sales. The compact pickup segment seemed destined to vanish earlier in the decade but has come roaring back with all-new or updated offerings from not only Ford but General Motors, Honda and Toyota. Even Hyundai is working on a new model, the Santa Cruz.

But the real surge is on the utility vehicle side where traditional, truck-based sport utility vehicles and newer crossover-utility vehicles like the popular Ford Escape now account for half of the overall American new vehicle market. Add pickups, vans and other light trucks and that jumps to 65 percent, with sedans and coupes continuing to lose momentum.

“This might be the boldest move Ford has made in many years,” analyst Dave Sullivan, of AutoPacific, Inc., told NBC News. “This is not a surprise given the direction that consumer preferences have moved.”

But it’s no slam dunk, Sullivan cautioned, considering Ford is by no means the only automaker trimming back on its passenger car spending. “The crossover market will be even more crowded” in the coming years.

Production Data

Ford reported the following sales by model in the USA in 2019:

FORD BRAND	FY2019	FY2018	% Change
Fiesta	60,148	51,730	16.3
Focus	12,480	113,345	-89.0
C-MAX	38	6,683	-99.4
Fusion	166,045	173,600	-4.4
Taurus	9,924	28,706	-65.4
Police Interceptor Sedan	3,427	7,382	-53.6
GT	229	126	81.7
Mustang	72,489	75,842	-4.4
Ford Cars	324,780	457,414	-29.0
EcoSport	64,708	54,348	19.1
Escape	241,388	272,228	-11.3
Edge	138,515	134,122	3.3
Flex	24,484	20,308	20.6
Explorer	168,309	227,732	-26.1
Police Interceptor Utility	18,752	33,839	-44.6
Expedition	86,422	54,661	58.1
Ford SUVs	742,578	797,238	-6.9
F-Series	896,526	909,330	-1.4
Ranger	89,571	0	N/A
E-Series	45,063	47,936	-6.0
Transit	153,868	137,794	11.7
Transit Connect	41,598	31,923	30.3
Heavy trucks	16,510	12,096	36.5
Ford Trucks	1,243,136	1,139,079	9.1
Ford Brand	2,310,494	2,393,731	-3.5

The Assignment

For this assignment, prepare a short analysis of the Ford decision that must include:

• Develop a State of Nature for the decision Ford has made. Your State of Nature should have at least 3 options associated with it. Justify your selections. Also include the probability for each State.

• Develop a set of Alternatives Ford might have used for the decision. Develop at least 3 and include a justification for each.

• Your opinion of Ford’s decision and the justification for your reasoning.