Question
1. North America Gross Billings Estimate by Segment for 4Q13 Please provide your North America gross billings estimate by segment (Local, Goods, and Travel) for
1. North America Gross Billings Estimate by Segment for 4Q13
Please provide your North America gross billings estimate by segment (Local, Goods, and Travel) for 4Q13. Include your raw estimates (without adjustments), Local segment billings for the outage period, and your final estimates, including any other additional adjustments.
Segment | Unadjusted Data | Local Segment Outage | Final Estimates |
Local | |||
Goods | |||
Travel | |||
Total |
2. Local Segment Outage Methodology Explanation & Calculations
Summary and step by step explanation of how you adjusted for the Local segment outage, the rationale for those adjustments, and supporting calculations.
We want to be able to easily understand and replicate your outage methodology. Your explanation should be able to be easily understood and fairly easily replicated by someone who doesn't have a strong background in data, programming, or statistics. Please avoid using an overly complex methodology.
3. Quality Assurance (QA) Check Descriptions, Results, & Decisions
Please describe the 5 most important Quality Assurance (QA) checks you performed and any decisions or adjustments made based on those checks.
4. Gross Billings Estimate Calculations
Please explain step by step, including the calculations you performed, how you arrived at your final billings estimate in section 1.
5. Local Segment Gross Billings Explanation for 3 Key Trends
If you plot Local Segment daily billings by start date from September 1st to the end of Q4 2013, you'll see a drop off towards the end of December 2013, an uptrend at the end of September, and a regular pattern of variation. Please explain why these three trends are occurring based on what you know about the data and Groupon’s business model.
Drop Off Towards End of December
Uptrend at the end of September
Regular Up and Down Pattern Day to Day
6. How Investors Will Interpret GRPN 4Q13 Results
Based on the data we provided, do you think investors will interpret Groupon’s 4Q13 North America total gross billings and gross billings by segment results positively or negatively? Why might one segment be more important than the others for investors from a financial perspective?
7. Explanation of Confidence in Gross Billings Estimates
Please explain how you and investors can be confident in YipitData gross billings estimates based on the materials provided.
YipitData Historical Estimates | Q3 2012 | Q4 2012 | Q1 2013 | Q2 2013 | Q3 2013 | ||||||||||
Jul-12 | Aug-12 | Sep-12 | Oct-12 | Nov-12 | Dec-12 | Jan-13 | Feb-13 | Mar-13 | Apr-13 | May-13 | Jun-13 | Jul-13 | Aug-13 | Sep-13 | |
Gross Billings ($ million) | |||||||||||||||
Local | $133.4 | $137.3 | $138.2 | $126.8 | $139.9 | $164.4 | $162.7 | $143.0 | $163.4 | $143.8 | $162.2 | $153.2 | $140.0 | $136.7 | $133.8 |
Goods | $26.7 | $33.0 | $50.8 | $64.3 | $85.1 | $64.3 | $47.3 | $46.0 | $51.0 | $62.8 | $71.7 | $67.1 | $61.3 | $67.0 | $63.2 |
Travel | $16.8 | $15.4 | $14.3 | $16.6 | $14.6 | $18.5 | $22.6 | $13.6 | $20.3 | $18.9 | $22.9 | $22.8 | $22.4 | $22.7 | $21.7 |
Total | $176.9 | $185.8 | $203.3 | $207.7 | $239.6 | $247.2 | $232.6 | $202.6 | $234.7 | $225.5 | $256.8 | $243.1 | $223.6 | $226.4 | $218.7 |
Q3 2012 | Q4 2012 | Q1 2013 | Q2 2013 | Q3 2013 | |||||||||||
Jul-12 | Aug-12 | Sep-12 | Oct-12 | Nov-12 | Dec-12 | Jan-13 | Feb-13 | Mar-13 | Apr-13 | May-13 | Jun-13 | Jul-13 | Aug-13 | Sep-13 | |
Units Sold | |||||||||||||||
Local | 4,400,800 | 4,233,715 | 4,991,815 | 5,177,436 | 4,920,379 | 5,502,182 | 5,330,316 | 4,823,772 | 5,530,983 | 4,807,697 | 5,592,799 | 5,755,798 | 4,996,243 | 4,902,361 | 4,967,461 |
Goods | 855,156 | 1,162,884 | 1,629,823 | 1,879,697 | 2,583,172 | 1,915,784 | 1,596,738 | 1,491,286 | 1,685,055 | 2,470,161 | 2,726,326 | 2,651,338 | 2,267,943 | 2,471,564 | 2,346,842 |
Travel | 61,283 | 84,985 | 60,253 | 74,358 | 87,333 | 93,703 | 84,821 | 55,030 | 84,686 | 102,091 | 144,592 | 142,509 | 103,021 | 108,412 | 105,752 |
Total | 5,317,240 | 5,481,583 | 6,681,891 | 7,131,491 | 7,590,883 | 7,511,668 | 7,011,876 | 6,370,088 | 7,300,724 | 7,379,948 | 8,463,717 | 8,549,645 | 7,367,207 | 7,482,337 | 7,420,054 |
Q3 2012 | Q4 2012 | Q1 2013 | Q2 2013 | Q3 2013 | |||||||||||
Jul-12 | Aug-12 | Sep-12 | Oct-12 | Nov-12 | Dec-12 | Jan-13 | Feb-13 | Mar-13 | Apr-13 | May-13 | Jun-13 | Jul-13 | Aug-13 | Sep-13 | |
New Deals Started | |||||||||||||||
Local | 13,543 | 12,926 | 12,814 | 14,544 | 13,914 | 15,374 | 12,375 | 11,846 | 13,041 | 10,790 | 14,281 | 13,815 | 14,173 | 13,075 | 10,670 |
Goods | 334 | 448 | 525 | 770 | 1,079 | 1,310 | 992 | 1,197 | 1,499 | 1,755 | 2,185 | 2,610 | 2,796 | 2,887 | 2,847 |
Travel | 211 | 277 | 217 | 262 | 270 | 334 | 243 | 188 | 205 | 329 | 471 | 458 | 506 | 537 | 571 |
Total | 14,088 | 13,651 | 13,556 | 15,576 | 15,263 | 17,018 | 13,610 | 13,231 | 14,745 | 12,874 | 16,937 | 16,883 | 17,475 | 16,499 | 14,088 |
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