Based upon macroeconomic evidence and analysis, provide your own analysis regarding where you believe the U.S. economy is operating with respect to the business cycle, i.e., in what phase of the business cycle (trough, expansion, peak, contraction) do you believe the US economy is in? Provide evidence for your assertion including, but not limited to, information regarding the leading indicator the coincidence indicator, housing starts, Real GDP, Consumer Confidence, stock market values, unemployment and/or employment. Explicitly account for any assumptions you or others are making regarding the relationship of the explanatory variables included in your analysis and the phases of the business cycle