Question
(Bayes Theorem!) Suppose we are interested in estimating the fraction of Yale students who have copied. . Instead of asking an embarrassing question directly, we
(Bayes Theorem!)Suppose we are interested in estimating the fraction of Yale students who have copied.. Instead of asking an embarrassing question directly, we use the technique of "randomized response," as follows. We ask each student being surveyed to toss a coin in private. If the coin lands "heads," they are to answer the question, "Have you copied a term paper?" truthfully. If the coin lands "tails," they are told always to answer "yes," whether they have in fact copied or not. Imagine that the true fraction of students who have copied is in fact 0.3, and imagine that participants in the survey indeed follow the randomized response procedure accurately and honestly. What is the conditional probability that a randomly chosen student who answers "yes" to the survey has in factcopied?
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