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Before making a final decision on the production plan to adopt, the bakery's manager decides to contact Professor Leung in the Math Department to conduct
Before making a final decision on the production plan to adopt, the bakery's manager decides to contact Professor Leung in the Math Department to conduct a market research survey. The results of the survey will indicate either favourable or unfavourable market conditions for premium breads.
In the past, when there was Low Demand, Professor Leung's predictions were unfavorable 80% of the time. The professor's predictions have also been favourable given Medium Demand 88% of the time, and unfavourable given High Demand 10% of the time.
- c) [12 marks] Calculate posterior (revised) probabilities(Round to 3 decimal places; do not round intermediate results). Show calculations or tables.
- d) [25 marks] Construct a multistage decision tree (based on part b) with the additional information from Professor Leung.
- e) [2 marks] What is the value of the sample information (EVSI) provided by Professor Leung?
- f) [3 marks] State the optimal decision strategy if Professor Leung's consulting fees were $500.
- g) [2 marks] Does the strategy change if Professor Leung's consulting fees were $1500? If yes, state the new optimal strategy? If no, explain.
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