Below is a trend adjusted model fitted to quarterly revenues of a startup company selling PowerDrink, a new energy drink geared toward college millennials. Based on the data and model below, answer the following questions.

13. The Delphi Approach is an example of what type of forecasting Model?

a. Long Range c. Qualitative

b. Time Series d. More than one of the above.

14. Which of the following is the least useful sales forecasting model to use when sales are increasing?

a. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing ( a = 0.3)

b. Simple mean (arithmetic average)

c. four period weighted moving average

d. Nave (Last Period Demand)

15. In terms of forecast errors, bias is a more important measure than MAD.

A. True

B. False

Alpha Beta .20 .30 t Data Smoothed 5,135.7 5,084.6 5,011.4 4,840.9 5,033.2 4,760.1 N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5,114 4,982 4,591 5,680 4,191 4,928 4,909 6,410 5,330 6,713 11 Trend Forecast % error -63.3 -60.8 5,072 0.8 -63.3 5,024 -0.8 -84.7 4,948 -7.8 -29.3 4,756 16.3 -78.1 5,004 -19.4 -63.3 4,682 5.0 -50.4 4,692 4.4 51.8 4,707 26.6 55.5 5,270 1.1 137.6 20.4 198.5 5,892 14.7 294.0 6,395 19.9 170.1 7,166 -40.5 6,717 -8.7 118.8 6,693 -5.0 163.2 6,717 9.9 68.9 7,102 -28.4 59.2 6,699 -2.5 66.4 6,710 1.8 142.0 6,812 15.6 69.9 7,332 -19.6 71.6 7,042 0.4 79.7 12 13 14 15 4,757.1 5,217.9 5,288.0 5,754.0 6,196.2 6,872.3 6,546.5 6,555.3 6,597.9 6,939.0 6,630.4 6,650.7 6,746.0 7,190.3 6,971.7 7,050.4 7,162.5 16 7,986 5,101 6,178 6,376 7,457 5,530 6,538 6,830 8,073 6,131 7,070 7,257 8,803 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24