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Below is an annual credit table for bonds from companies in the nation of Fuego. It describes the probabilities of a bond being in each

Below is an annual credit table for bonds from companies in the nation of Fuego. It describes the probabilities of a bond being in each of the three grades in a year.

Investment Speculative Junk
0.80 0.15 0.05

a) Tara currently holds a bond issued by Future Industries, a company in Fuego. Calculate the probability that her bond will NOT be junk-grade within the next 5 years. [4 marks]

b) Calculate the probability that Taras bond will NOT be speculative-grade in next two years. [3 marks]

c) Kat has just bought a strange derivative product. The payoff from this product is based on what happens to Future Industries bonds. This derivative product matures in 1 year. The table below shows the payoffs from this derivative based on each of the three possible states of the bond in 1 year:

State Derivative Payoff
Investment $0
Speculative $3
Junk $10

Assuming that Kat will hold this derivative until maturity, calculate the expected payoff from this derivative at maturity. Note that you do NOT need to discount this back to today. [3 marks

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