Question
Below is an annual credit table for bonds from companies in the nation of Fuego. It describes the probabilities of a bond being in each
Below is an annual credit table for bonds from companies in the nation of Fuego. It describes the probabilities of a bond being in each of the three grades in a year.
Investment | Speculative | Junk |
0.80 | 0.15 | 0.05 |
a) Tara currently holds a bond issued by Future Industries, a company in Fuego. Calculate the probability that her bond will NOT be junk-grade within the next 5 years. [4 marks]
b) Calculate the probability that Taras bond will NOT be speculative-grade in next two years. [3 marks]
c) Kat has just bought a strange derivative product. The payoff from this product is based on what happens to Future Industries bonds. This derivative product matures in 1 year. The table below shows the payoffs from this derivative based on each of the three possible states of the bond in 1 year:
State | Derivative Payoff |
Investment | $0 |
Speculative | $3 |
Junk | $10 |
Assuming that Kat will hold this derivative until maturity, calculate the expected payoff from this derivative at maturity. Note that you do NOT need to discount this back to today. [3 marks
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