below table is the forecast for the monthly demands for Year 6 using moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holts' model, and Winter's model.

Method	MAD	MSE	MAPE	TS	BIAS
Moving Average (4 period)	4339.34	33,101,562.50	87.04%	0.79	-32250
Simple Exponential Smoothing with = 0.11	4338.43	28,126,025.55	80.24%	0.84	-28342.71
Holt's Model = 0.1 and = 0.2	4084.74	24,194,135.58	77.52%	-2.47	10100.86
Winter's Model with = 0.1 and = 0.2	17668.79	1,207,933,249.00	373.83%	40.51	715743.64

based on the table, which is the best forecasting method for the case? justify your answer.

(you may refer to Chapter 7 "demand forecasting in a supply chain"), Sunil Chopra and Peter Meindl, Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operation, Pearson, 2010)