Ben Johnson, CFO of Alter Enterprises is analyzing a new project to sell solar powered batteries for cell phones. Ben has estimated the following probability distributions for the variables for the project.

Probability	10%	30%	40%	20%
Industry Demand	80,000,000	95,000,000	108,000,000	124,000,000
Probability	5%	20%	20%	25%	20%	10%
Ulrich Market Share	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%
Probability	20%	70%	10%
Initial Cost	$60,000,000	$65,000,000	$72,000,000
Probability	20%	70%	10%
Variable Cost/Unit	$ 24.00	$ 26.00	$ 29.00
Probability	15%	25%	40%	20%
Fixed Cost	$ 20,000,000	$ 24,000,000	$ 27,000,000	$ 31,000,000

The unit price depends on the industry demand since greater demand will result in a higher price. Ben determines that the price per unit will be given by the equation:

Price = Industry demand/2,000,000 +/-$2

The random +/- 2 term represents an increase or decrease in price according the following distribution:

Probability	45%	55%
Price Randomness	-$2	$2

The length of the project, tax rate, and required return are as follows:

Projected length (years)	6
Tax rate	40%
Required rate of return	15%

1. Create a Monte Carlo simulation for the project with 1,000 runs. Calculate the NPV for each run.
2. Create bins and frequency distribution for these bins
3. Create a cumulative probability graph using Excels histogram function.
4. Repeat a, b and c for IRR calculations.
5. In a brief statement discuss the risk involved with this project as you see fit with these 1,000 simulations.