Big Game: Goldman Sachs' Elephant Hunt in Libya - Questions

Part I:

1. Briefly summarize the case.
2. Describe the first Citigroup trade in Exhibit 5.
3. What positions do the LIA and Goldman enter? Draw payoff and profit diagrams of the forward, the put option, and the combined position.
4. Compare the combined position to a direct investment in the Citigroup stock.
5. What do you think of the scenario analysis Goldman provided to the LIA
6. (Exhibit 4)? [Ignore any discrepancy with your estimates: they are due to the fact that in reality the trade was slightly different than what is described in the case. We will return to this in Part III in the last class.]
7. Draw payoff and profit diagrams of the first EdF trade in Exhibit 5.
8. Is there counterparty risk? If so, are both the LIA and Goldman exposed to
9. counterparty risk? What are the counterparty risk implications on the value (or market
10. price) of the trade?
11. Assume the options in Exhibit 3 were European. Suppose the yield curve is flat and
12. equal to 2.28%, 1-time c.p.a. (which is the 3-year spot rate provided in the case). Linearly interpolate between the mid-prices (average between bid and ask prices) of the options with strike prices $25 and $30 to proxy for the at-the-money option prices.
13. Use the put-call parity to estimate the expected dividend yield of Citigroup between Jan 2008 and Jan 2009 as well as between Jan 2008 and Jan 2010.
14. Use again the put-call parity to estimate the expected cash dividend ($ amount) per quarter between Jan 2008 and Jan 2009 as well as between Jan 2008 and Jan 2010, assuming that Citigroup pays the same $ amount in every quarter.
15. How does this compare to the dividends of $0.54 per share paid in each quarter in 2007? How does it compare to the actual dividends paid between Jan 2008 and Jan 2010 (see file BigGameCitigroupData.cvs).
16. Compare the price of $100 millions paid by the LIA for the first Citigroup trade in Exhibit 5 to the listed options in Exhibit 3. Can either the LIA or Goldman make an obvious arbitrage profit?
17. Why did the LIA trade with Goldman rather than buying exchange traded options or the underlying stocks?
18. Do the elephant trade fit the LIA's mandate?