Bloomberg News reported on October 27, 2020: Advanced Micro Devices Inc. agreed to buy Xilinx Inc. for $35 billion in stock, quickening the pace of chip industry deal-making and using its largest acquisition ever to add products to challenge leader Intel Corp. Xilinx investors will get 1.7234 AMD shares for each Xilinx stock they own. That values Xilinx at about $143 a share, 25% more than the closing price on Monday [October 26, 2020] and 35% above the price before news of a possible deal was reported earlier in October.

The deal is a coup for AMD Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su, creating a company with a larger research-and-development budget and a broader array of products to take on Intel Corp. AMD shares slid 3.5% in New York, leaving them up about 74% this year. Xilinx rose 10% for a gain of 29% so far in 2020. The acquisition still needs to be approved by shareholders and regulators, including authorities in China. AMD is targeting the end of 2021 for the deal to close. When it does, the transaction will immediately improve AMDs profitability, cash flow and revenue growth, AMD said in a statement. AMD shareholders will own 74% of the new company. AMD will pay Xilinx $1.5 billion if the deal fails to close in certain circumstances. For Xilinx, that fee is $1 billion, according to a regulatory filing. AMD would also have to pay a lower $1 billion fee if it cant get regulatory approvals in time. The deal cleared all regulatory hurdles and closed on 14 February 2022. The following table presents price information for AMD, Xilinx, and the S&P 500 stock index for selected days. The betas for AMD and Xilinx are 1.95 and 0.98 respectively according to Yahoo! Finance.

Date	AMD Price	Date	Xilinx Price	S&P 500
26 October 2020	82.23	26 October 2020	114.55	3400.97
27 October 2020	78.88	27 October 2020	124.35	3390.68
28 October 2020	76.40	28 October 2020	119.76	3271.03
28 September 2021	101.52	28 September 2021	150.50	4352.63
29 September 2021	100.35	29 September 2021	147.73	4359.46
27 December 2021	154.36	27 December 2021	222.78	4791.19
28 December 2021	153.35	28 December 2021	219.87	4786.35
10 February 2022	125.77	10 February 2022	216.55	4504.08
11 February 2022	113.18	11 February 2022	194.92	4418.64

A. Using the information in the table above for September 29, 2021, calculate the rough market probability that the deal will happen as of that day. The interest rate can be ignored as the six-month Treasury note was yielding 5 basis points in late September 2021. Also ignore, any termination payments by either party. Show your calculations.

B. Suppose it is October 27, 2020, and another chip maker decides it wants to buy Xilinx in an all-cash deal after markets have closed. After indicating what Geoff Blythe called this uncertainty in his presentation to the class, what is the minimum price that the competing chip maker would need to offer Xilinx shareholders in order to entice them to do the deal? Show your calculations and explain your answer.