Bob and Jenny are graduating from Tippie in December and plan to get married the following June. One of the many challenges facing them is to figure out how many meals to reserve for the reception. They are inviting 200 people, but they have realized that not everyone will show up. Vowing to put their analytics degrees to work, they decide to build a simulation model.

• After doing some research, they have decided to model the number of people that will RSVP as YES as a triangular distribution with a minimum of 60%, most likely of 75% and maximum of 85%.
• Of those who RSVP YES, there is a 95% probability that each will show. (Hint: Model as a binomial distribution.)

Each meal they reserve for the reception costs them 52 dollars. If the reception hall staff must set up extra tables and serve additional meals that were reserved, the cost per additional meal will 77 dollars.

1. If they want to minimize their expected cost of the meals, how many meals should they reserve? (Considered values from 125 to 165 in increments of 5.)

1. With this value what is the expected cost of the meals?

1. They currently have a budget of $8,000 for the meals. What is the probability that the total cost will exceed $8,000?