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Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Winter Park, Florida. Begun by Michelle Boulanger 22 years after World War II, the
Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Winter Park, Florida. Begun by Michelle Boulanger 22 years after World War II, the S&L has bucked the trend of financial and liquidity problems that has repeatedly plagued the industry. Deposits have increased slowly but surely over the years, despite recessions in 1983. 1988. 1991, 2001. and 2010. Ms. Boulanger believes it is necessary to have a long-range strategic plan for her firm. including a 1year forecast and preferably even a 5yearforecast of deposits. She examines the past deposit data and also peruses Florida's gross state product (GSP). over the same 44 years. (GSP is analogous to gross national product [GNP] but on the state level.) The resulting data are in the following table: :1 Year Depositsa GSPb Year Depositsa GSPb Year Depositsa GSPb Year Depositsa C-ESPb m 2 0.24 0.39 13 0.49 1.19 24 4.00 2.90 35 31.00 4.10 3 0.24 0.50 14 0.94 1.21 25 4.60 3.00 36 31.60 4.10 4 0.27 0.69 15 1.60 1.19 26 6.00 3.40 37 38.60 3.90 5 0.24 0.89 16 2.20 1.61 27 7.70 3.80 38 47.80 4.60 6 0.30 0.99 17 2.80 1.50 28 10.10 4.10 39 49.00 4.50 7 0.32 1.40 18 2.70 1.61 29 15.30 4.00 40 55.80 4.40 8 0.32 1.71 19 2.80 1.70 30 18.00 4.10 41 69.10 4.70 9 0.24- 1.29 20 3.80 1.90 31 23.90 4.00 42 71.90 4.70 10 0.27 1.21 21 4.90 1.89 32 25.70 3.70 43 80.10 4.60 11 0.24- 1.11 22 5.40 2.29 33 30.20 3.70 44 93.00 5.00 aIn $ millions. bIn $ billions. This exercise contains only part a. a) Using exponential smoothing with 01 = 0.8 and an initial forecast of 0.25. the forecast or deposits for year 44 is $ 78.23 million (round your response to two decimal places). Using linear regression trend analysis, the forecast for deposits for year44 is $ 53.14 million (round your response to two decimal places). Using least squares simple regression on GSP, the forecast for deposits for year 44 is $ million (round your response to two decimal places)
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