Question
Brock is considering two expansion opportunities. One option is to begin production in Uruguay for the south american market. The profit would be $8,000 for
Brock is considering two expansion opportunities. One option is to begin production in Uruguay for the south american market. The profit would be $8,000 for the year, but there is a 20 percent chance that there will be no South American demand for Brock's products once he begins producing in Uruguay. If that happens, Brock will convert the manufacturing plant and make $2,000 during the year selling hamburgers and hot dogs. The other opportunity is to expand production for the domestic market. If Brock does this, he will win one of two possible contracts. Contract 1 earns a profit of $4,000 for the year and contract 2 earns a porfit of $10,000 for the year. There is an 80 percent chance that he would win contract 1 and a 20 percent chance that he would win contract 2. Brock's utility (Happiness) is a function of how much profit he makes in a year and is given by U = 200 - (100/i), where i is Brock's profit in thousands of dollars. Help the poor boy out.
Calculate Brock's expected utility if he builds the plant in Uruguay and calculate his expected utility if he decides to expand production domestically. Should he build the manufacturing plant in Uruguay or should he expand production in the domestic market?
Brock can hire a consultant specializing in South American economies. The consultant will provide information about demand conditions in Uruguay before Brock makes his decision. That is, Brock would know for sure whether demand in Uruguay will be "good" or "bad". Would Brock pay $1,000 to know for sure whether he would get the $8,000 profit in Uruguay with the original probabilities? Note: the consultant is not guaranteeing the "good" outcome, only providing information about its occurrence. (please show work without using excel, thanks!)
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