Building the Sector/Factor Array When positioned as headings on a table these became our Sectors, incorporating the meta-syntactic language, PREDICT, to be used later when referring to different settings. The columns within each heading were then expanded to form a possible range of Factors or states in which the Sector could exist. The final row in the table provides a brief descriptor of the factors' foci. Table 1 Sector/Factor Array Political Will Regional Economic Domestic International Condition of Technology Stability Situation Stability Stability the Environ- R E D 1 Adventurous bold Cohesion Booming Superior Cohesion Minor conflicts 2 Fencesitting, procrastinat- ion, cautious 3 Avoidance, extreme reluctance 4 Paralysis, catatonia 5 ment T Overwhelmin Improving g rate of change or development Continuing rate No further development Generally Parity Generally Regional stable Competitive stable conflicts Manageable/ fixable Localised Inferior, Localised Major theatre Continuing unrest, declining unrest, wars, degradation discontent discontent multinational Widespread Widespread Mass Meltdown, unrest, public uprisings Anarchy unrest, public uprisings Anarchy destruction catastrophe Propensity to Political, take risks military, socio- economic State of Australian Socio- Scale of political military economy stability conflict relative to elsewhere in stability of that of the the world region region Effects on and of the physical environment Development of technology on an international scale Pair-wise Comparison This process can take a number of forms, all are judgmental and involve reaching some measure of consensus using a Yes/No decision, numbered scale or some other means to determine the degree of 'fit'. Table 2 Results of Pair-wise Comparison R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 E1 E2 E3 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 Il I2 13 14 C1 C2 C3 C4 T1 T2 T3 P1 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y P2 Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y Y P3 Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y/N N N N N Y P4 N N Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y/N Y Y R1 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y R2 Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N N N Y Y R3 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N ZZYZZ N Y/N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y Y R4 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y R5 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y E1 Y Y Y N N Y Y Y N Y/N Y Y N Y Y N E2 Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y N E3 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y D1 Y Y N Y Y/N Y Y N Y Y N D2 Y Y N N N Y Y D3 Y Y Y Y N N Y D4 Y Y Y Y N Y Y D5 Y Y Y Y N N Y 7 7 7 7 N Y Y N N N Y N N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Il Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12 Y Y Y Y Y Y N 13 N N Y Y Y Y N 14 N N Y Y N Y Y C1 Y Y N C2 Y Y N C3 Y Y Y C4 Y Y Y PREDICT settings which carry a qualitatively similar setting are set out in the table below. The further breakdown into a,b, c and d sub categories was forced through the need to not violate the 'one up or down' rule mentioned earlier. These sub-groups were treated as a single entity in the later stages of Faustian tree construction and the generation of scenarios. Table 3 Result of Clustering PREDICT Configuration No PREDICT Configuration No 1a P1-2 R 1b P1-2 1c P1-2 1d P1-2 12a P1-2 RRRRR E D 11-2 C2-3 T1-2 24 P1-2 R3 E3 D1-2 11-2 C3 T1-2 R1-2 E2 D 11 C2 T 24b 25a P1-2 R3 E3 D3-4 2-3 C3 T1-2 R2 E D1-2 11 C2-3 T1-2 25 P1 R3 E2-3 D3-4 1-2 C3 T1-2 R1-2 E D2 1-2 C3 T1-2 26 R E2 D1-2 C2-3 T 26a 1-2 2b IP 1-2 R1 E D1-2 1-2 C3 T 26ab 3 P 1-2 RR R E D3 2-3 C3 T 26b 27a PPPPP P R3-4 E2-3 D4 12-3 C3 T1-2 P1 R4-5 E D1-2 1-2 C3 T1-2 P1 P2 RRP R4 E2 D1-2 ||1-2 C3 T R4 E1-2 D1-2 1-2 C3 T1-2 4 P1-2 R1 E1-2 D3-4 1-2 C3 T 28 P1-2 R4 E1-2 D3-4 1-2 C3 T 4a P1-2 R2 E1-2 D2-3 C3 T 29a P1 5 P1-2 R E3 D 1-2 C2-3 T1-2 29b P2 6 P1 R1 E3 D1 11-2 C4 T1-2 30 P 7 P R1 E3 D1 4 C3-4 T2 31a P RRRR R4 E3 D1-2 11-2 C3-4 T1-2 R4 E3 D1-2 11-2 C3-4 T1-2 R4 E3 D3 C3-4 T2 1-2 R4 E3 D4-5 11-2 C3-4 T1-2 8a P R1 E3 D2-3 |1-2 C3-4 T1-2 31b P2 R4 E3 D4 1-2 C3 T1-2 8b P2 R E3 D2-3 1-2 C3-4 T1-2 32 P1-2 R4 E3 D4-5 |3 C3-4 T1-2 9 P1-2 11 2721567 10.13 P1 RR R E3 D3 2-3 C3-4 T 33 P R1 E3 D3-4 14 C3-4 T2-3 34 P P1-2 R1 P1-2 RRR E3 D4 11-2 3-4 T1-2 35a P1 R1 E3 D4 | 3-4 C3-4 T1-2 35b P1 14 P R E3 D5 1-2 C3-4 T 36 P P1 R1 E3 D5 |3 C3-4 T 37 1 P1 R1 E3 D5 14 C3-4 T3 38 P1 17a P R2 E2-3 D1-2 1 C2-3 T1-2 39 P1 17b P2 R2 E2-3 D1-2 11 C2-3 T1-2 40 P3 RRRR RRRRR R4-5 E1-2 D3-4 2-3 C3 R5 E2-3 D1-2 12 C3-4 T1-2 R5 E3 D3-4 13-4 C3-4 T1-2 R5 E3 D4 12 C3-4 T1-2 R5 E3 D 14 C3-4 T R5 E3 R5 E3 R5 R 18 P2 R2-3 E2-3 D2-3 C3 T1-2 41 P3 R2-3 19a 19b P1 R3 P2 20 P 21 22 P1-2 P1-2 23 P2 RRRRRR E1-2 D1-2 11-2 C3 T1-2 42 P3 R1-2 R3 E1-2 D1-2 11-2 C3 T1-2 43 P3 R3-4 R2 E3 D2-3 1 C3 T1-2 44 P3 R4 R3 R3-4 E-2 D2-3 C3 T 45 P4 R3-4 1-2 D5 12-3 C3-4 T D4-5 14 C3-4 T2-3 E3 D2-3 2 C3-4 T1-2 E1-2 D C3 T1-2 E1-2 D C3 T1-2 E1-2 D3-4 1 C3 T E1-2 D3-4 C3 T E1-2 D 41 C3 T1-2 E3 D4-5 11-2 C3 T 46 P4 R5 E3 D4-5 12 C3 E D3 3 C3 R3 E2-3 D3-4 11-2 C3 T1-2 Constructing the Faustian Tree To make the future believable it is necessary to string the transitions into a plausible history that marks out how a future world could evolve from the present. These transitions track outwards from a present PREDICT configuration and branch according to shaping triggers that underlie the factors. For instance, a movement of one level along the Political Will sector coupled with a multiplier in the Economic Situation can deliver dramatic changes in the direction of the lines and branches, in effect becoming an intermediate, but vital, point on the path to other transitions. To maximise creative thought and discussion Coyle's recommendations (1996, p. 275) on the methods employed to build the tree were followed. A series of sticky notes covering all PREDICT configurations (46) were positioned on a wall and arranged and re-arranged as discussion surrounded the workability of this or that transition and the events surrounding it. After several discussion and evaluation sessions the positions of the notes had stabilised and agreement was reached that what was portrayed was a reasonably complete and plausible account of a future history. This point of stabilisation was also evident in the fact that discussion points surrounding various PREDICT settings and transitions had been exhausted. An abbreviated view of the Faustian tree, with their associated PREDICT settings and transitions, is set out in the figure below. The bold initial number refers to the cluster number. No attempt is made at this point to establish times to the diagram A possible explanation for the transition from cluster 17 to cluster 6, which is characterised by a worsening environmental condition C2-3 moving to C4 and a lowering of economic performance E2-3 moving to E3, may be found in the continuing massive environmental damage resulting from forest burning in Malaysia and Indonesia with its effect on economic prosperity. 3 P1-2RE1D3I2-3C3T2 6 PRE3DI1-2C4T1-2 17 P1-2R2E2-3D1-2I1C2-3T1-2 8 P1-2RE3D2-3I1-2C3-4T1-2 2 P1-2R1E2-2D1-2I1-2C2-3T2 19 P1-2R3E1-2D1-2I1-2C3T1-2/ 41 P3R2-3E1-2DIC3T1-2 Figure 1 Simplified View of the Faustian Tree