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BUSINESS Research Report SCHOOL FIN3IFM: International Financial Management Helpful Data Sources: Yahoo Finance (https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AUDUSD%3DX/history?p=AUDUSD%3DX) Barchart https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/A6*0/historical-prices?viewName=main Reserve Bank of Australia - for monthly barchart interest
BUSINESS Research Report SCHOOL FIN3IFM: International Financial Management Helpful Data Sources: Yahoo Finance (https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AUDUSD%3DX/history?p=AUDUSD%3DX) Barchart https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/A6*0/historical-prices?viewName=main Reserve Bank of Australia - for monthly barchart interest rate and inflation rate in Australia. Federal Reserve Bank for monthly inflation rate Australian Dollar Jun 21 (ASM21) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EDO) & monthly interest rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3MO#0) in the USA. You can also use other sources that you find more convenient. Summary statistics You are required to analyse the mean, median, and volatility of each data series. You are required to use graphs for meaningful visualization of your data series. Examining the Behavior of the Exchange Rate Present a meaningful economic explanation of the trend of the AUD/USD spot exchange rate. What are the main factors that explain the changes in the value of the Aussie dollar against the USD during the last five years? You are required to use the relevant factors that have been covered during the lectures. These include economic factors - trade and finance related, government intervention, political factors, government policy regulations, etc. You are expected to spend significant time in this section. Evaluating the Future Exchange Rate Examine the trend of spot exchange rate and future exchange rate. Do you find any links? Identify whether the future exchange rate includes a discount or premium for each quarterly period (total 20 quarters)? Present your result in a table and a graph. Note that while forward rate and future rate are not the same, you can use these terms interchangeably for this assignment for reasons mentioned earlier. Testing IRP, PPP, and IFE Using the last five years (60 data points), examine whether IRP, PPP, IFE holds. Present your result in tabular and graphical form. What are the implications you can draw from your analysis about potential actions by market participants (MNCs, Banks, forex traders)? Since you will have quarterly future rate data from public sources, you can use the linearonlinear interpolation method in Excel / Numbers or other data analyzing software to fill the missing data to generate monthly future rates. If you are unsure of what is interpolation, and how to do that in Excel, please visit credible websites to form your understanding
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