c. Bill tells you about his decision. You respond by suggesting that he should perhaps have bought some of both Compary Q and Company W shares. Explain why you make this suggestion. Calculations not required. 6. Sonja, a rational investor, has $2,000 to invest for one year while she completes her pro- fessional accounting designation. She s contemplating investing the full amount in shares of Northern Ol& Gas Ltd. (a) or in a risk-free government bond yielding an annual returm of 32%(a2). Sonja identifies two states of nature State H: Northern has high future cash fiow State L: Northem has low future cash flow. On the basis of her prior information about Northern, Sonja assesses the following subjective prior state probabilities State H: 0.4 State L: 0.6 The following is the payoff table for these two investments. Payofts from Northern shares incude dividends and estimated capital gain for the year. Capital gain is based on the average analyst forecast for Northerm's share price. Payoffs are net of ie, they exclude) the original investment State $484 $25 Act $64 $64 The investor is risk averse, with utbility equal to the square root of the net doilar payoff. Required a. On the basis of her prior probabilities, which act should Sonja take? Show calculations b. Instead of acting now, Sonja decides to obtain more information about Northern by reading its annual report. She knows that financial statements are based on a mixed measurement model. Also, she is a student of financial accounting theory, and esti- mates the quality of financial statements prepared according to these standards by the following information system Current Annual Report Evidence Good 0.7 Bad 0.3 State 0.1 0.9 Good evidence means that a company reports profits that are higher than the average analyst forecast. Bad evidence means that the company's profits are less than forecast. take now? Show calculations c After buying the Northern shares, Sonja is disappointed to note that the market price Upon reading the current annual report, Sonja finds it is good. Which act should Sonja O, its shares begins to fall, despite the good news n its earnings report She nor pects that the good news Northern's financial statements was not good as she erd hthis posable? Give reasons why or why not c. Bill tells you about his decision. You respond by suggesting that he should perhaps have bought some of both Compary Q and Company W shares. Explain why you make this suggestion. Calculations not required. 6. Sonja, a rational investor, has $2,000 to invest for one year while she completes her pro- fessional accounting designation. She s contemplating investing the full amount in shares of Northern Ol& Gas Ltd. (a) or in a risk-free government bond yielding an annual returm of 32%(a2). Sonja identifies two states of nature State H: Northern has high future cash fiow State L: Northem has low future cash flow. On the basis of her prior information about Northern, Sonja assesses the following subjective prior state probabilities State H: 0.4 State L: 0.6 The following is the payoff table for these two investments. Payofts from Northern shares incude dividends and estimated capital gain for the year. Capital gain is based on the average analyst forecast for Northerm's share price. Payoffs are net of ie, they exclude) the original investment State $484 $25 Act $64 $64 The investor is risk averse, with utbility equal to the square root of the net doilar payoff. Required a. On the basis of her prior probabilities, which act should Sonja take? Show calculations b. Instead of acting now, Sonja decides to obtain more information about Northern by reading its annual report. She knows that financial statements are based on a mixed measurement model. Also, she is a student of financial accounting theory, and esti- mates the quality of financial statements prepared according to these standards by the following information system Current Annual Report Evidence Good 0.7 Bad 0.3 State 0.1 0.9 Good evidence means that a company reports profits that are higher than the average analyst forecast. Bad evidence means that the company's profits are less than forecast. take now? Show calculations c After buying the Northern shares, Sonja is disappointed to note that the market price Upon reading the current annual report, Sonja finds it is good. Which act should Sonja O, its shares begins to fall, despite the good news n its earnings report She nor pects that the good news Northern's financial statements was not good as she erd hthis posable? Give reasons why or why not