This assignment relates to the following Course Learning Requirements:

[CLR 1] Calculate the chance that some specific event will occur at some future time • knowledge of the normal probability distribution

[CLR 2] Perform Sampling Distribution and Estimation

[CLR 3] Conduct Hypothesis Testing

[CLR 4] Understand and calculate Regression and Correlation

The objective of this Assignment: To conduct a regression and correlation analysis

Instructions:

• The term paper must be typed and it will not be returned.
• The term paper involves conducting a regression and correlation analysis on any topic of your choosing. The paper must be based on yearly data for any economic or business variable, for a period of at least 20 years

(Note: the source of the data must be given. Data which is not properly documented as to source is unacceptable and paper will be graded F. Textbook examples are unacceptable).

• The paper can be between 3 to 5 pages (1500 to 2000 words).
• The term paper should distinguish between dependent and independent variables; determine the regression equation by the least squares method; plot the regression line on a scatter diagram; interpret the meaning of regression coefficients; use the regression equation to predict values of the dependent variable for selected values of the independent variable and construct forecast intervals and calculate the standard error of estimate, coefficients of determination (r2) and correlation (r) and interpret the meaning of the coefficients (r2) and (r). Your regression and correlation analysis must:

 

Criteria	Excellent 80-100%	Good 50-79%	Requires Improvement <50%	Points
Use and Interpretation of formulas, graphs, tables	Uses and develops an appropriate model and interprets quantitative information with clearly defined variables, units or representations	Uses and develops an appropriate model and interprets quantitative information	Uses and develops an appropriate model and interprets quantitative information with few or many errors	/4
Comments
Use of appropriate mathematical methods such as arithmetic, geometric or analytical means to solve problems Communication of this information effectively using visual, numerical, or verbal representations	The problem is solved correctly All work is shown using appropriate methods with no errors in the calculations All visual, numerical, and/or verbal representations are clear in the solution	Some steps are missing or unclear The solution to the problem is mostly correct The work shown is incomplete or contains minor errors	The attempt to solve the problem is evident The solution is unclear or difficult to follow The limited amount of work shown has an incomplete or incorrect solution. Some of the information is correct but contains a conceptual error	/12
Comments
Soundness and accuracy of conclusions derived from quantitative information	There is a detailed and clear evaluation that justifies the accuracy of the answer and the conclusions	The evaluation of the accuracy of the conclusion and answer is clear but leaves out some details	The evaluation of the conclusion or the answer is attempted, but it is either unclear or irrelevant	/4
Comments
Total Points

[T1]Insert the total points for the assignment here.

The total points should equal the percentage of the assignment.

1. Graph the data (scatter diagram) 2. Use the method of least squares to derive a trend equation and trend values 3. Use the check column to verify computations > (Y-YC)=0's: 4. Superimpose trend equation on scatter diagram. 5. Use your model to predict the movement of the variable for the next year. 6. Compare your predictions with the actual behavior of the variable during the 21styear.