3- a. Calculate the first 5 autocorrelations for the data in the sheet “Problem 3”; consider the series to be a quarterly time series. How many of the autocorrelations fall outside the 95 percent confidence interval (positive or negative)?

b. Calculate and display the first 5 partial auto correlations for the 100 time-series observations. How many of the partial autocorrelation coefficients fall outside the 95 percent confidence interval?

c. Estimate the appropriate model as determined from your inspections carried out in parts a and b. Calculate the RMSE for the model.

Problem 3

Data series	With 1 lag	With 2 lags	With 3 lags	With 4 lags	With 5 lags
0.77
0.31
0.88
0.48
0.99
1.16
1.26
0.86
0.48
0.39
0.55
0.76
0.56
1.12
1.18
0.45
0.21
0.36
1.06
1.17
0.5
0.74
0.78
0.39
0.82
1.35
1.08
1.18
1
0.87
1.38
1.37
1.01
1.28
1.42
0.82
0.59
0.6
0.59
1.25
1.02
1.11
1.47
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.29
0.19
0.12
0.76
1.07
1
0.9
1.11
0.71
0.38
0.61
0.99
0.99
0.74
0.28
0.27
0.42
0.3
0.19
0.21
1.08
1.12
0.85
0.68
1.13
1
0.38
1.02
0.73
0.36
0.71
0.4
0.09
0.35
1.06
1.16
0.9
1.15
0.76
0.45
1.03
1.54
1.65
1.33
0.48
0.82
1.48
0.74
0.25
0.5
1.18
1.45
1.08
0.86