Calculate the MAD and MSE for each of the above three forecasting methods by using the last four months values $($i$.$e$.$ September $2010$ to December $2010),$ and determine which forecasting method is the best.

Moving Averages with $5$ Periods

Linear Trend

Moving Average with $3$ Periods

Exponential Smoothing $(\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}3)$