Question
Can someone help with this decision tree 1) Southern Gas Company (SGC) is preparing to make a bid for oil and gas leasing rights in
Can someone help with this decision tree
1)Southern Gas Company(SGC) is preparing to make a bid for oil and gas leasing rights in a newly opened drilling area in the Gulf of Mexico. SGC is trying to decide whether to place a highbidof$16millionoralowbidof$7million.SGC,expectstobebiddingagainstitsmajor competitor Western Gas Corporation (WGC) and predicts WGC to place a bid of $10 million with a probability of 0.4 or a bid of $6 million with probability 0.6. Geological data collected at the drilling site indicates a 0.15 probability of the reserves at the site being large, a 0.35 probability of being average, and a 0.5 probability of being unusable. A large or average reserve would most likely represent a net asset value of $120 million or $28 million, respectively, after all drilling and extraction costs are paid. The company that wins the bid will drill an exploration well at the site for a cost of $5million.
a.Develop a decision tree for this problem. Draw this tree by hand and include it along with yoursubmission.
Do not put any numbers (probabilities, costs, etc.) on yourdrawing.
The tree should show the structure and logic of the decisionprocess.
Distinguishing between decision and chance nodes, and naming the various nodes and branches, iscritical.
Createatreethatisasgeneralaspossible-donoteliminatecertainbranches from consideration because of the specific values of the inputs as presented in the case.
Recall that the key to success is determining what decision/event happens first, and then building out the tree in sequentialorder.
b.Implement your Decision Tree in Precision Tree. Then print out your solved decision tree on a single page and attach it as a part of yoursubmission.
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