Case 12.2: Moola Farms Decision tree

Mr. Moola, the owner of Moola Farms is attempting to decide which of three crops he should plant on his 100 acre farm. The profit from each crop is strongly dependent on the rainfall during the growing season. He has categorized the amount of the rainfall as substantial, moderate or light. He estimates his profit for each crop as shown in the table below:

Open table as spreadsheet

Rainfall	Estimated Profit ()
	Crop A	Crop B	Crop C
Substantial	7,000	2,500	4,000
Moderate	3,500	3,500	4,000
Light	1,000	4,000	3,000

Based on the weather in previous seasons and the current projection for the coming season, he estimates the probability of substantial rainfall as 0.2, that of moderate rainfall as 0.3, and that of light rainfall as 0.5.

Furthermore, services of forecasters could be employed to provide a detailed survey of current rainfall prospects as shown in the table.

Open table as spreadsheet

Rainfall	Estimated Profit ()
	Crop A	Crop B	Crop C
Substantial	0.70	0.25	0.05
Moderate	0.30	0.60	0.10
Light	0.10	0.20	0.70

You in the capacity of Block Advisor to farmers are expected to suggest

1. Which crop should Mr. Moola plant based on existing data?
2. (Whether it would be economical for the farmer to hire the services of a forecaster. If yes, then how will the result affects the decision process.