Case study: Bank Account Forecast A well-known commercial bank in Australia is interested in estimating the number of new bank account opened by customers in each year. The number of new accounts opened in this bank has increased slowly over years even during the global financial crisis (2008-2009). Top management strongly believes that they need a long-term strategic plan for the bank which is a 5-year forecast for the number of new accounts opened. To achieve this aim, the bank operations manager examined past account data and also extracted the employment rate over 30 years (1991-2020). The resulting data are shown in below table: No of new Year account(000) Employment Rate (%) No of new Year account(000) Employment Rate (%) 1991 3.136 90.42 2006 6.007 95.22 1992 3.309 89.27 2007 5.826 95.62 1993 3.803 89.13 2008 8.266 95.77 1994 6.807 90.28 2009 7.128 94.44 1995 2.386 91.53 2010 9.670 94.79 1996 4.643 91.49 2011 11.419 94.92 1997 2.911 91.64 2012 11.335 94.78 1998 2.553 92.32 2013 9.358 94.34 1999 4.422 93.13 2014 10.418 93.92 2000 3.613 93.72 2015 10.459 93.95 2001 3.948 93.26 2016 7.328 94.29 2002 3.347 93.63 2017 9.004 94.41 2003 3.907 94.07 2018 8.559 94.70 2004 4.071 94.60 2019 8.476 94.84 2005 6.666 94.97 2020 8.635 93.39 C. Between GDP Per Capita and employment rate which one do you think can better estimate the number of new bank account? Marking criteria: Criterion Marks Correct forecasts for all possible periods using Moving average. Show the graph of actual and forecast. 3 Correct forecasts for all possible periods using Linear trend (trend projection). Show the graph of actual and forecast. 3 Correct forecasts for all possible periods using Linear regression. Show the graph of actual and forecast. 3 4 Find the method that fits best for the bank strategic plan. Explain why? Do you think that the exclusion of a part of data (for example, the first 5-10 years) would affect the accuracy of the forecast? Briefly explain. Would such exclusion change your choice of forecasting method? Briefly explain. Explain which variable, GDP Per Capita or employment rate, can better estimate the number of new bank account and why? Total 3 4 20