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Case Study: Forecasting the Sales of Home Furnishing Products Go to http://www.census.gov/retail/index.html Under monthly retail report, download the retail and food services sales (1992-present). It

Case Study: Forecasting the Sales of Home Furnishing Products Go to http://www.census.gov/retail/index.html Under monthly retail report, download the retail and food services sales (1992-present). It is an Excel file. We will focus on Home Furnishing stores (NAICS Code=4422). Suppose that now is the end of the 2014. You want to forecast the monthly sales in 2015 based on the data from 2012, 2013, and 2014. 1. Plot the time series data (2012 - 2014) using Excel, what do you observe? 2. Use trend and seasonal factors to forecast the monthly demand for 2015. a. Compute seasonal factors b. Compute Deseasonalized Demand c. Use regression to computer the trend equation d. Generate the monthly forecast for 2015 3. Plot the forecasted demand and the actual demand of 2015 on the same graph. Do your forecasting results successfully capture trend and seasonality? Please submit the Excel including the above required results. Make sure that you clearly label and number each step in your Excel file.

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