Case Study Scenario

LEE INC. Manufacturing builds golf balls and golf clubs.

The company has started to manufacture three different drivers (Type A, Type B, and Type C), in addition to golf balls.

The sale for all three types is growing, which creates a dilemma for Mr. Lee, production manager for the manufacturing plant (refer to table 1 below). The manufacturing work cell at present can only produce 2,700 drivers each month. However, the total sale is growing fast and approaching 2,700 quickly. Based on the feedback from his employees, Mr. Lee knows that it takes a minimum of three months to expand work cell capacity (including planning and implementation).

Month	A Sale	B Sale	C Sale
April 2019	1,410	377	343
May 2019	1,417	381	344
June 2019	1,434	387	346
July 2019	1,452	391	349
August 2019	1,466	396	350
September 2019	1,483	400	352
October 2019	1,490	403	354
November 2019	1,505	409	357
December 2019	1,521	412	359
January 2020	1,536	420	363
February 2020	1,547	423	365
March 2020	1,554	426	367
April 2020	1,562	431	369
May 2020	1,574	437	371
June2020	1,587	441	375
July 2020	1,595	445	377
August 2020	1,613	454	381
September 2020	1,631	461	384
October 2020	1,642	464	386
November 2020	1,656	471	389
December 2020	1,673	477	392
January 2021	1,685	480	394
February 2021	1,703	485	396
March 2021	1,720	490	399

Questions

1. Mr. Lee requires a forecast model to support his decision making. Which quantitative model would be appropriate to support Mr. Lee's decision making? Why?

Tip 1: To answer this question, focus on the total number of drivers that must be produced each month.

Tip2: in order to decide which forecasting method is a good fit for the case, you must start with visualizing the data in a scatter plot to observe if the data is mostly random, or if there is a pattern (i.e., trend) in data.

You can use Excel to create a scatter plot using excel. You can watch the following video to learn how to create a scatter plot for a dataset: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcFPDvZ3lIo

Tip 3: Describe all the qualitative and quantitative methods and when each method is used. After you provided the complete description, then identify and justify your approach for forecasting for Mr. Lee based on the data in this Case Study.

Qualitative Method includes Market Surveys, build up forecast, life cycle analogy method, panel concensus forecasting, Delphi method.

Quantitative Method: Time Series Model (Moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, linear regression) Causal Method (Linear regression,multiple regression).

2. Develop a quantitative forecast model for Mr. Lee. 3. Using the model you developed, determine when LEE INC. Manufacturing must have the expanded work cell up and running?

Tip 4: You must use the quantitative model you have developed and extrapolate data and determine when LEE INC. Manufacturing must have the expanded work cell up and running (you must show the data in the subsequent months to justify your answers).

4. What is the implication of the time that expanded work cell must be up and running? in other words, when Mr. Lee should initiate the expansion project? (Justify your answer based on the facts you learned in the case study and the answer to question 3).