Case Study: The Supreme Court and Public Opinion The judicial branch is probably the most opaque of the three branches of the federal government. The Court's important role in both shaping and responding to public opinion is somewhat murky, citizens are rarely surveyed directly about the exact questions posed to the Supreme Court, and at the federal level the public has minimal recourse to decisions on which they disagree. Justices are often portrayed as apolitical or nonpartisan, but evidence has shown that justices, for the most part, maintain some degree of ideological consistency that can map onto broad partisan perspectives. Likewise, judicial decisions are often in line with broad public opinion and can shape it as the results of judicial decisions are borne out in the public policy realm. This raises questions about the broader role of the judiciary in the policy-making ecosystem. One way to think about the role of the Supreme Court in the political system is to examine how decisions line up with broader public opinion at the time when they are made. While the language used in polls often does not align exactly with the judicial question at hand, public opinion data can be a useful proxy for understanding how a decision might be received by the population as a whole. However, we are hampered by data availability, so this is broadly focused on the last seventy years. In this exercise, you will review brief summaries of certain court cases, along with relevant polling data. Then you will answer questions about how these two phenomena interact. School Desegregation Brown v. Board of Education (1954) The decision in Brown v. Board of Education (1954) determined that the "separate but equal" doctrine that had governed most schools since the Plessy decision in 1896 was a violation of the Constitution. This established that legal segregation of educational facilities was unconstitutional. Polling on this topic was limited to nonexistent prior to the decision itself, but questions about school integration were more common after the decision was issued. While enforcement was slow and largely left up to the states, according to a 1954 poll around the time the decision was released, 55 percent of those surveyed indicated that they were in support of the decision. However, when asked about their support for a logical consequence of such a decision-for example, white and black students attending the same schools-a 1956 poll by the National Opinion Research Center found that only 49 percent of white adults supported such a policy Abortion Rights Abortion Rights Roe v. Wade (1973) Roe v. Wade (1973) established the right to seek an abortion to end a pregnancy, subject to certain limits with regard to gestational age. Prior to the decision in Roe, each state was able to set its own laws on abortion, making it legal in some states but not others. Roe v. Wade established that people must be able to seek an abortion with limited state interference in the first trimester, while the state has a broader interest in the fetus later on in the pregnancy. Public opinion poll questions about abortion have generally focused on the types of policies or circumstances under which abortion ought to be allowed; prior to the decision in Roe, the 1972 American National Election Study found that 11 percent of adults surveyed believed that abortion should never be permitted; 87 percent of respondents indicated that there were at least some circumstances under which they believed abortion should be allowed under the law. This has been a somewhat stable finding in 2016, the National Election Study found that 14 percent of respondents believed that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances; 45 percent of respondents indicated that abortion should be legal as a matter of personal choice. The remainder supported abortion being available under limited conditions. Same-sex Marriage Obergefeil v. Hodges (2015) Obergeell v. Hodges (2015) legalized same-sex marriages across the country, requiring states to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, as well as recognize marriages of same-sex couples performed elsewhere. A prior decision, Windsor v. United States (2013), required the federal government to recognize same-sex marriages but did not require states to recognize them or issue a marriage license. Prior to the decision in Windsor, in 2012, a survey by the Pew Research Center found that approximately 48 percent of adults supported same-sex marriage. By 2015, when the Obergefell decision came down, that proportion had risen to 55 percent and has continued to rise since. Health Care NFIB V. Sebelius (2012) Health Care NFIB v. Sebelius (2012) A number of decisions have changed the trajectory of the 2010 law known as the patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, colloquially known as the ACA or Obamacare. The 2012 decision in NFIB V. Sebelius limited the ability of the federal government to mandate that states participate in an expansion of Medicaid. Later lawsuits have challenged the law's provisions of an individual mandate to purchase insurance, and the requirement that coverage be granted to those with pre-existing conditions. Public opinion on the ACA is somewhat difficult to pin down; broadly, Americans are in favor of many of the provisions of the law, such as protections for those with pre-existing conditions and allowances for young adults to remain on their parents' insurance until the age of 26. According to polls by the Kaiser Family Foundation, approximately 44 percent of adults surveyed in 2012 held a favorable view of the ACA. This has risen to 51 percent in July 2020. Notably, when asked if the ACA should be overturned by the Supreme Court, 59.4 percent of respondents in the 2019-20 SCOTUS poll- a survey designed to assess public opinion about Supreme Court cases-indicated that they believe the ACA should not be struck down. Based on the summaries presented here, which case's reversal would be most contrary to public opinion on the issue? Brown v. Board of Education Roe v. Wade NFIB v. Sebelius Obergefell v. Hodges True or false: While public opinion surveys indicated that most adults are supportive of the decision in Brown v. Board of Education, a significant share was opposed to the policy outcome of desegregated schools. True False Which of the following describes the general trend in public opinion on issues that reach the Supreme Court, as summarized in these cases? Which of the following describes the general trend in public opinion on issues that reach the Supreme Court, as summarized in these cases? The Supreme Court rarely agrees to hear issues that are controversial in the public sphere. The Supreme Court has no discernable pattern of alignment with public opinion. Supreme Court decisions tend to be broadly aligned with public opinion on most issues. Supreme Court decisions tend to be contrary to public opinion on most issues. Case Study: The Supreme Court and Public Opinion The judicial branch is probably the most opaque of the three branches of the federal government. The Court's important role in both shaping and responding to public opinion is somewhat murky, citizens are rarely surveyed directly about the exact questions posed to the Supreme Court, and at the federal level the public has minimal recourse to decisions on which they disagree. Justices are often portrayed as apolitical or nonpartisan, but evidence has shown that justices, for the most part, maintain some degree of ideological consistency that can map onto broad partisan perspectives. Likewise, judicial decisions are often in line with broad public opinion and can shape it as the results of judicial decisions are borne out in the public policy realm. This raises questions about the broader role of the judiciary in the policy-making ecosystem. One way to think about the role of the Supreme Court in the political system is to examine how decisions line up with broader public opinion at the time when they are made. While the language used in polls often does not align exactly with the judicial question at hand, public opinion data can be a useful proxy for understanding how a decision might be received by the population as a whole. However, we are hampered by data availability, so this is broadly focused on the last seventy years. In this exercise, you will review brief summaries of certain court cases, along with relevant polling data. Then you will answer questions about how these two phenomena interact. School Desegregation Brown v. Board of Education (1954) The decision in Brown v. Board of Education (1954) determined that the "separate but equal" doctrine that had governed most schools since the Plessy decision in 1896 was a violation of the Constitution. This established that legal segregation of educational facilities was unconstitutional. Polling on this topic was limited to nonexistent prior to the decision itself, but questions about school integration were more common after the decision was issued. While enforcement was slow and largely left up to the states, according to a 1954 poll around the time the decision was released, 55 percent of those surveyed indicated that they were in support of the decision. However, when asked about their support for a logical consequence of such a decision-for example, white and black students attending the same schools-a 1956 poll by the National Opinion Research Center found that only 49 percent of white adults supported such a policy Abortion Rights Abortion Rights Roe v. Wade (1973) Roe v. Wade (1973) established the right to seek an abortion to end a pregnancy, subject to certain limits with regard to gestational age. Prior to the decision in Roe, each state was able to set its own laws on abortion, making it legal in some states but not others. Roe v. Wade established that people must be able to seek an abortion with limited state interference in the first trimester, while the state has a broader interest in the fetus later on in the pregnancy. Public opinion poll questions about abortion have generally focused on the types of policies or circumstances under which abortion ought to be allowed; prior to the decision in Roe, the 1972 American National Election Study found that 11 percent of adults surveyed believed that abortion should never be permitted; 87 percent of respondents indicated that there were at least some circumstances under which they believed abortion should be allowed under the law. This has been a somewhat stable finding in 2016, the National Election Study found that 14 percent of respondents believed that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances; 45 percent of respondents indicated that abortion should be legal as a matter of personal choice. The remainder supported abortion being available under limited conditions. Same-sex Marriage Obergefeil v. Hodges (2015) Obergeell v. Hodges (2015) legalized same-sex marriages across the country, requiring states to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, as well as recognize marriages of same-sex couples performed elsewhere. A prior decision, Windsor v. United States (2013), required the federal government to recognize same-sex marriages but did not require states to recognize them or issue a marriage license. Prior to the decision in Windsor, in 2012, a survey by the Pew Research Center found that approximately 48 percent of adults supported same-sex marriage. By 2015, when the Obergefell decision came down, that proportion had risen to 55 percent and has continued to rise since. Health Care NFIB V. Sebelius (2012) Health Care NFIB v. Sebelius (2012) A number of decisions have changed the trajectory of the 2010 law known as the patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, colloquially known as the ACA or Obamacare. The 2012 decision in NFIB V. Sebelius limited the ability of the federal government to mandate that states participate in an expansion of Medicaid. Later lawsuits have challenged the law's provisions of an individual mandate to purchase insurance, and the requirement that coverage be granted to those with pre-existing conditions. Public opinion on the ACA is somewhat difficult to pin down; broadly, Americans are in favor of many of the provisions of the law, such as protections for those with pre-existing conditions and allowances for young adults to remain on their parents' insurance until the age of 26. According to polls by the Kaiser Family Foundation, approximately 44 percent of adults surveyed in 2012 held a favorable view of the ACA. This has risen to 51 percent in July 2020. Notably, when asked if the ACA should be overturned by the Supreme Court, 59.4 percent of respondents in the 2019-20 SCOTUS poll- a survey designed to assess public opinion about Supreme Court cases-indicated that they believe the ACA should not be struck down. Based on the summaries presented here, which case's reversal would be most contrary to public opinion on the issue? Brown v. Board of Education Roe v. Wade NFIB v. Sebelius Obergefell v. Hodges True or false: While public opinion surveys indicated that most adults are supportive of the decision in Brown v. Board of Education, a significant share was opposed to the policy outcome of desegregated schools. True False Which of the following describes the general trend in public opinion on issues that reach the Supreme Court, as summarized in these cases? Which of the following describes the general trend in public opinion on issues that reach the Supreme Court, as summarized in these cases? The Supreme Court rarely agrees to hear issues that are controversial in the public sphere. The Supreme Court has no discernable pattern of alignment with public opinion. Supreme Court decisions tend to be broadly aligned with public opinion on most issues. Supreme Court decisions tend to be contrary to public opinion on most issues