CHAPTER 5: FORECASTING AND PLANNING Cherns has never examined its internal labor market. The company asks you to perform a transition analysis for full-time sales associates. It asks you to conduct relevant analyses to describe the internal labor market for sales associates across the company as a whole. Summarize Cherns internal labor market and highlight any trends or forecasted gaps based on the transition probability matrix in Table A5. The probabilities are based on annual rates that are averaged over a span of 3 years. In other words, they are the average rate per year. Assuming Cherns wants to stay staed with 15,120 full-time sales associates, how many full-time sales associates should it expect to have to hire from outside the company annually? Traditionally, 25 percent of the stores job applicants for sales associate positions become job candidates, and 20 percent of the job candidates receive job oers, 75 percent of which are accepted. Cherns asks you how many applicants it will need to generate each year to acquire the number of new hires you forecasted. Cherns asks you to research the external labor market for sales associates because the company is concerned about their availability in the future. Using O*Net, choose a state in the United States and research the expected demand for sales associates in that state over the next 10 years. Now research the employment trends of retail sales workers using the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics website at www.bls.gov and other resources you identify. Consider this information when forecasting future gaps or surpluses. You might also consider targeted skill sets or demographics and determine if you can obtain information about skill or demographic trends in your targeted area. If you forecast a gap between the anticipated supply of qualied sales associates and Cherns anticipated demand for them, determine whether the gap is temporary or permanent.Then, make some recommendations about how Cherns can best address the gap. Be sure to reread the relevant section of Chapter 5 before you do so.

Assignment

a. Conduct a transition analysis.

b. Summarize the internal labor market and highlight any trends or forecasted gaps.

c. Based on the transition probability matrix, calculate how many new full-time sales associates should be hired externally to maintain a headcount of 15,120 full-time sales associates.

d. Calculate the number of applicants needed to acquire the number of new hires you forecasted.

E. Research the current and forecasted labor market for retail salespeople. If you forecast a gap, and determine whether the gap is temporary or permanent. Make some recommendations to address the gap.

TABLE A-5 - The Transition Probability Matrix for Chern's (Based on the Last 3 Years)