Chapter 8 - Forecasting Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Actual ($Thousands) 42 58 58 77 91 82 74 68 71 65 50 45 1. Use a three-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December. 2. Use a three-month moving weighted average to forecast the sales for the months May through December. Use weights (3/6), (2/6), and (1/8), giving more weight to more recent data. 3. Use exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.7 to forecast the sales for the months of May through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was $40,000. Start error measurement in 4. Compare the performance of the three methods by using the following criterion and state which method you would recommend based on your comparison. O CFE O MSE O MAD O MAPE

Chapter 8 - Forecasting 1. Use a three-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December. 2. Use a three-month moving weighted average to forecast the sales for the months May through December. Use weights (3/6),(2/6), and (1/8), giving more weight to more recent data. 3. Use exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.7 to forecast the sales for the months of May through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was $40,000. Start error measurement in May. 4. Compare the performance of the three methods by using the following criterion and state which method you would recommend based on your comparison. CFE - MSE MAD MAPE