Chart the data below in several ways, enough so you can talk about which modeling tool you should use. Then propose which modeling tools you are going to use and, based on/supported by your charts, why you will use those methods. Using split data modeling conduct a regression with categorical variables to create a forecast model. Discuss the information in the regression output, is it a good model, do all of the IV variables hold up or do you need to eliminate some, if so, eliminate them and run the regression again. Once you have the correct IV's, test the model on the last two years of data that you held out of your model. Use CFE, MSE, MAD, and MAPE to test the model. Discuss your CFE, MSE, MAD, and MAPE. What information do they provide? Then create four quarters of forecasts with the upper and lower confidence intervals of those forecasts.

1 4 5 1 7 Then create four quarters of forecasts with the Consecu Net tive Sales 8 Period Iqt (in 9 millions) 10 1995 3.22 11 1995 2 2 1.74 12 1995 3 3 7.11 13 1995 4 9.95 14 1996 6.38 15 1996 2 6 2.3 16 1996) 3 7 16.56 17 1996 4 8 10.63 18 1997 4.75 19 1997 21 10 5.31 20 1997 3 11 25.85 21 1997 4 12 21.01 22 1998 13 14.57 23 1998 2 14 10.25 24 1998 3 15 43.91 25 1998 4 38.04 1 9 16 Sheet1 Ready Picture 2 X C E 25 26 27 28 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 29 4 30 31 32 33 24 34 1 35 A 1998 4 19991 1 1999 2 1999 3 1999 2000 2000 2 2000 3 2000 4 2001 2001 2 2001 2001 4 2002 2002 2 2002 2002 4 2003 2003 2 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 Sheet1 D 38.04. 12.88 17.62 31.78 40.791 28.42 42.86 48.96 51.17 104.82 32.71 65.74 57.34 33.65 73.02 125.65) 143.8 107.88 43.68 78.82 149.76 98.08 36 25 26 27 28 29 37 38 1 39 30 40 3 41 42 1 31 32 33 34 35 36 43 44 45 46 3 37 + Ready O W Clipboard Font Picture 3 fx C E 45 4 46 47 2 48 3 49 4 50 51 2. 52 53 3 4 54 1 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 20061 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 D 361 149.76 37 98.08 38 95.84 39 80.56) 401 121.18 41 142 42 84.95 43 225.58 44 95.182 45] 145.034 46 137.444 471 182.252 481 157.954 49 67.14 50 151.755 51] 131.994 52 188.76 531 224.072 54 89.509 55 301.995 56 92.11 55 2 56 3 57 4 58 1 59 2 60 3 61 4 62 63 2 64 3 4 65 66 Sheet1 + Ready DI W T 1 4 5 1 7 Then create four quarters of forecasts with the Consecu Net tive Sales 8 Period Iqt (in 9 millions) 10 1995 3.22 11 1995 2 2 1.74 12 1995 3 3 7.11 13 1995 4 9.95 14 1996 6.38 15 1996 2 6 2.3 16 1996) 3 7 16.56 17 1996 4 8 10.63 18 1997 4.75 19 1997 21 10 5.31 20 1997 3 11 25.85 21 1997 4 12 21.01 22 1998 13 14.57 23 1998 2 14 10.25 24 1998 3 15 43.91 25 1998 4 38.04 1 9 16 Sheet1 Ready Picture 2 X C E 25 26 27 28 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 29 4 30 31 32 33 24 34 1 35 A 1998 4 19991 1 1999 2 1999 3 1999 2000 2000 2 2000 3 2000 4 2001 2001 2 2001 2001 4 2002 2002 2 2002 2002 4 2003 2003 2 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 Sheet1 D 38.04. 12.88 17.62 31.78 40.791 28.42 42.86 48.96 51.17 104.82 32.71 65.74 57.34 33.65 73.02 125.65) 143.8 107.88 43.68 78.82 149.76 98.08 36 25 26 27 28 29 37 38 1 39 30 40 3 41 42 1 31 32 33 34 35 36 43 44 45 46 3 37 + Ready O W Clipboard Font Picture 3 fx C E 45 4 46 47 2 48 3 49 4 50 51 2. 52 53 3 4 54 1 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 20061 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 D 361 149.76 37 98.08 38 95.84 39 80.56) 401 121.18 41 142 42 84.95 43 225.58 44 95.182 45] 145.034 46 137.444 471 182.252 481 157.954 49 67.14 50 151.755 51] 131.994 52 188.76 531 224.072 54 89.509 55 301.995 56 92.11 55 2 56 3 57 4 58 1 59 2 60 3 61 4 62 63 2 64 3 4 65 66 Sheet1 + Ready DI W T