Question
choice=f(0+1Age65+ 2Urban+ 3ColGrad). We want to apply the logistic regression model, where choice is notated as 0 or 1, and Age65, Urban, ColGrad are predictor
choice=f(0+1Age65+ 2Urban+ 3ColGrad).
We want to apply the logistic regression model, where choice is notated as 0 or 1, and Age65, Urban, ColGrad are predictor variables.
(1) Estimate 1, 2, 3 using MLE method, and report the estimated values. After that, carry out the test for their significance at 10% significance level using p-value approach.
(2) Report exp(1), exp(2), and exp(3) using the estimated values in (1). After that, explain the meaning of each value. (Hint: as 1 unit of x increase, odds of success increase xx times)
(3) Using the threshold 0.5, report the proportion of predicting that choice=1 when in fact the choice=1
| State | choice | Age65 | Urban | ColGrad | Union | MidWest | Neast | West | Seast |
| AL | 1 | 13 | 69.9 | 20.4 | 9.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| AK | 1 | 5.7 | 41.5 | 28.1 | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| AZ | 1 | 13 | 88.2 | 24.6 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| AR | 1 | 14 | 49.9 | 18.4 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CA | 0 | 10.6 | 96.7 | 27.5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| CO | 1 | 9.7 | 83.9 | 34.6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| CT | 0 | 13.8 | 95.6 | 31.6 | 16.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DE | 0 | 13 | 80 | 24 | 13.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| FL | 0 | 17.6 | 92.8 | 22.8 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| GA | 1 | 9.6 | 69.2 | 23.1 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| HI | 0 | 13.3 | 72.3 | 26.3 | 24.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| ID | 1 | 11.3 | 39.9 | 20 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| IL | 0 | 12.1 | 84.9 | 27.1 | 18.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IN | 1 | 12.4 | 72.2 | 17.1 | 15.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IA | 0 | 14.9 | 45.3 | 25.5 | 13.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KS | 1 | 13.3 | 56.6 | 27.3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KY | 1 | 12.5 | 48.8 | 20.5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LA | 1 | 11.6 | 75.4 | 22.5 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ME | 0 | 14.4 | 36.6 | 24.1 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MD | 0 | 11.3 | 92.7 | 32.3 | 14.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MA | 0 | 13.5 | 95.9 | 32.7 | 14.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MI | 0 | 12.3 | 82.2 | 23 | 20.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MN | 0 | 12.1 | 70.4 | 31.2 | 18.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MS | 1 | 12.1 | 36 | 18.7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MO | 1 | 13.5 | 67.8 | 26.2 | 13.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MT | 1 | 13.4 | 33.9 | 23.8 | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NE | 1 | 13.6 | 52.6 | 24.6 | 8.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NV | 0 | 11 | 87.5 | 19.3 | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NH | 0 | 12 | 59.9 | 30.1 | 10.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NJ | 0 | 13.2 | 100 | 30.1 | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NM | 0 | 11.7 | 56.9 | 23.6 | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NY | 0 | 12.9 | 92.1 | 28.7 | 25.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NC | 1 | 12 | 67.5 | 23.2 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ND | 1 | 14.7 | 44.2 | 22.6 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OH | 0 | 13.3 | 81.2 | 24.6 | 17.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OK | 1 | 13.2 | 60.8 | 22.5 | 6.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OR | 0 | 12.8 | 73.1 | 27.2 | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| PA | 0 | 15.6 | 84.6 | 24.3 | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| RI | 0 | 14.5 | 94.1 | 26.4 | 18.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| SC | 1 | 12.1 | 70 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SD | 1 | 14.3 | 34.6 | 25.7 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TN | 1 | 12.4 | 67.9 | 22 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 9.9 | 84.8 | 23.9 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| UT | 1 | 8.5 | 76.5 | 26.4 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| VT | 0 | 12.7 | 27.8 | 28.8 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| VA | 1 | 11.2 | 78.1 | 31.9 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WA | 0 | 11.2 | 83.1 | 28.6 | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| WV | 1 | 15.3 | 42.3 | 15.3 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WI | 0 | 13.1 | 67.9 | 23.8 | 17.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WY | 1 | 11.7 | 30 | 20.6 | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
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Intermediate Microeconomics
Authors: Hal R. Varian
9th edition
978-0393123975, 393123979, 393123960, 978-0393919677, 393919676, 978-0393123968
