Choose a country that is currently fixing its exchange rate. Using the ideas wecovered in our class (international and monetary econonomics) and ideas from other sources if needed, answer the following question: What is the likelihood of the country experiencing a balance-of-payment crisis in the next 1, 5, and 10 years? (I don't need an explanation on what BoP crisis are or the current situation, just future predictions, assumptions and explanations for the 3 different periods of time!!). The main idea was to get a sample of countries's CA and Foreign currency with a time span of 10 years before past balance of payment crisis, and then buid a gaussian curve in order to assign a probability to the country I chose for the future years.) Anyway I have problems with this idea and I don't know if there is a better way to do it , by maintaining at the same time a decent quantitative evidence, not only assumptions! Please be aware I did not take econometric classes, so I'm limited to simple statistical model such as simple linear regressions/multiple linear regressions.