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circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances ( or states of nature ) , multiply the anticipated return expected
circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances or states of nature multiply the anticipated return
expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence.
Consider the following case:
Ethan owns a twostock portfolio that invests in Happy Dog Soap Company HDS and Black Sheep Broadcasting BSB Threequarters
of Ethan's portfolio value consists of HDSs shares, and the balance consists of BSBs shares.
Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in
different market conditions are detailed in the following table:
Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in Ethan's portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three
possible market conditions next year.
The expected rate of return on Happy Dog Soap's stock over the next year is
The expected rate of return on Black Sheep Broadcasting's stock over the next year is
The expected rate of return on Ethan's portfolio over the next year is
The expected returns for Ethan's portfolio were calculated based on three possible conditions in the market. Such conditions will vary from time to
time, and for each condition there will be a specific outcome. These probabilities and outcomes can be represented in the form of a continuous
probability distribution graph.
For example, the continuous probability distributions of rates of return on stocks for two different companies are shown on the following graph:
Based on the graph's information, which of the following statements is true?
Company A has a tighter probability distribution.
Company B has a tighter probability distribution.
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