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Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc. is planning to add a new product line to make Gadgets. However, Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc. is considering the possibility of

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Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc. is planning to add a new product line to make Gadgets. However, Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc. is considering the possibility of abandoning the project if the demand for the new product is low. In the following decision tree table, (1), (2) and (3) represent decision points, also known as decision nodes or stages. The dollar value to the right of each decision node represents the net cash flow at that point, and the cash flows shown under t - 3, 4, and represent the cash inflows if the project is pushed on to completion. If Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc. decides to launch the new line for Gadgets at Stage (1), then it will spend $20,000 on the marketing study. If the marketing study yields positive results, then the firm will spend $100,000 on the prototype. If the prototype works well, then the firm will spend several millions more at Stage (3) to build a production plant. Suppose that as an analyst at Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc. you have to analyze sequential decisions. By studying the following decision tree, you leam which of the following? Check all that apply. There is a probability of 85% that the marketing study will produce positive results. There is a 15% probability that the marketing study will produce positive results, There is a 10% probability of the pilot project yielding average results. There is a 15% probability that the marketing study will produce negative results. Complete the decision tree table by calculating the net present values (NPV) and joint probabilities, as well as products of joint probabilities and NPVs for each decision branch. Assume that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 10% for all decision branches. Hint: Use either a spreadsheet program's functions or a financial calculator for this task. Round the NPVs to the nearest dollar and remember to enter the minus sign if a value is negative. Note: All cash amounts in the following table are in thousands of dollars. Step 0 Step 1 1st Invest Prob 2nd Invest Step 2 3rd Invest Step 3 Inflow Step 4 Inflow Step 5 Inflow Prob NPV () Joint Prob (%) NPV x Joint Prob ($) $9.237 $20,065 85% -$100 (2) 50% (2) 40% (2) 10% - $10,269 - $10,000 Stop (3) $4,761 (3) $1,900 (3) $2.345 $7.800 (1) -$20 SO 30 15% Stop $0 Expected NPV = Based on your calculations, you recommend that Cold Duck Manufacturing Inc

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