Community and Public Health for Medical Technology (Lab)-H... > Description Find the following values and show your solution. POST-CENSAL ESTIMATESPOST-CENSAL ESTIMATES In the 2007 census, the Philippine population was GIVEN VALUES ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC EXPONENTIAL determined to be 88, 548, 366. Determine the following: Po 2010 1. Population estimates for the years 2010, 2012, and 2014 using the arithmetic method. Assume an absolute increase 2011 per year of 1,554,134. 2012 2. Population estimates for the years 2011, 2013, and 2015 using the geometric method. Assume an annual rate of 2013 growth of 1.65%. 2014 3. Population estimates for the years 2010, 2013, and 2014 using the exponential method. Use the same r value. 2015DEMOGRAPHY C E NT R O ESCOLAR UNIVERSITY 1907 '4 claim\" v wnun Measuring Changes in Population Size A. Natural Increase is simply the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths which occurred in a specific population within a specified period of time (usually one year). Example: Natural Increase = Number of births in 1992 minus number of deaths in 1992 =1,684,595 519.579 =1,364.816 persons Rate of Natural Increase when the difference between the number of births and deaths are expressed relative to the population size. Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Example: 25.8/1000- 4.911000 = 20.911000 Absolute and Relative Increases 2) The second group of measures makes use of population counts obtained during two censuses instead of data onjust births and deaths. In other words, increases or decreases brought about by migration are also taken into consideration. These are the absolute increase per year and the relative increase in the population size, 0) Absolute increase per year (b) = H t Where: P0 = population size at an initial time. 0 Pt = population size at a later time, t t = number of years between time o and time t Relative Increase b) Relative increase = 121 Ba x 100 P0 where: P0 = population size at an initial time, 0 Pt = population size at a lattertime, t The population size of Cavite province as recorded during the 1980 census was 771,520 and this increased to 1,150,458 based on the last census in 1990. What is the absolute increase per year and the relative increase in the population size? Given: 1980 (Po)= 771,520 1990 (Pt)= 1,150,458 Absolute Increase per year (b) = W29 10 = 37, 914 individuals per year Interpretation: Dun'ng the 10-year period (between 1980 and 1990) 57,914 persons were added to the population each yean :. s N I Hi Escol. IIMVFIHII' an, Relative Increase =1150 458 - 771 520 771,520 x 100 = 49.20% Interpretation: The Increase In the population size of Cavite between 1980 and 1990 Is 49% of Its original population (1930 population). Estimating and Projecting Populations 1) Inter-censal estimates refer to population estimates made on any date intermediate to two censuses and take the results of these censuses into account. 2) Postcensal estimates - are estimates of population size on any date in the past or during a current date following a census. 5) Projections - are population estimates made on any date following the last census for which no current reports are available. 4. s m l Hm EchvL/w \\mlvrwslrv E Mn Estimation of Population Size for a Future Date 1. Arithmetic Method Pt = P0 + bt . Example: The population of the Philippines as of May 1,1990 census was 60,559,116. Assuming that me Philippine papula'don increases by 1,000,000 per year on the average, how large will the Phi ippine population be byJuly 1,1995? First find the difference between the two dates: 1995 7 1 191051 5 years 2 months a days convert 2 months into year = 2l12 = 17 therefore time is 5.17 years Substituting the values: Pt = 60,559,116 + (1,000,000) (5.17) (_ E A Pt= 60,559,116 + 5,170,000 fhh'i Pt= 65,729,116 7 ' . Interpretation: The midyear population of the Philippines In 1995 15 equal to 65,729,116 using the arithrn method of population estimation. Computing for average annual increase ( if not given in the data) Example: Pop, of July 12, 2010 = 7, 823, 456 Pop, of Sept, 19, 2020 = 15, 567, 839 1) Compute for time interval between last 2 successive censuses Year Month Day 2020 9 19 2010 7 12 10 2 7 = if the day is 15 and above add 1 to the $1323: icrui'nd divide the months by 12. If days is below 15 , the months Time interval = 10+ 2/12 (0.17) = 10.17 2) Get the difference between the 2 population census and divide by the time interval to get the average annual increase (Average annual decrease if pop. had decreased). Pop. of Sept, 19, 2020 = 15, 567, 859 Pop. ofJuly 12, 2010 = - 7, B23, 456 7,544,535 divide by 10.17 ( time interval ) Average annual increase = 741,827 50 if you want to estimate the pop. during 2012 Pt = P0 + bt 2012 Pop, = 7, 825,456 + 741,827 (2) (since from 2010 to 2012 there are 2 yrs) = 7, B23, 456 + 1,483,654 = 9,507,110 (answer) ESEL-"Jt'i': quEkslrv , V Drill :Try to estimate the Pop. during 2015 (4 Estimation of Population Size for a Future Date 2. Geometric Method To be able to estimate a future population using this method, we need to have data on the rate of growth or r. Assume that for the given problem, r = 2.33%. The equation to be used in this case is Pt = P0 (1 + r) I Pt = 60,559,116 (1 + 0.025575\") Pt= 60,559,116 (1.0255) (5-17) Pt = 60,559,116 (1.12646) Pt= 68,217,422 Estimation of Population Size for a Future Date 3. Exponential Method The formula to be used if the assumption is that the population is continuously increasing at very small amounts of time is given by: Pt = P0 e rt where e is the mathematical constant equivalent to 2.71 pt = 60,559,116 9 (0.0253) (5.17) Pt= 60,559,116 e (2.71) (0-1205) Pt = 60,559,116 (1.1276) Pt: 68, 289, 247