Conduct a sensititivy analysis of some of the variables. How far would these variables have to go in order to turn the project from positive to negative? Running a sensitivity analysis will be based on several different variables. We'd like to look at the rate used to calculate weighted average cost of capital in order to take fluctuations into the risk premium. Currently the risk premium is at 6%. We are going to analyze and calculate this premium as if it were 5% or 7%. After properly calculated, we can see that the NPV still remains positive even if the risk premium is changed to 5% or 7%. Another important aspect of the sensitivity analysis to evaluate is the potential fluctuations in bond rating. First, changing the bond rating from an A to an Aa rating with 5.53% interest and a Baa rating at 6.25% interest. Throughout these changes, we found that although it mildly changed the NVP, it still remained positive. Our last analysis is looking at the chance of revenue changes and what difference that will bring. We analyzed how NPV would change if revenues were decreased to $3,000,000 in 2017 and $8,000,000 in 2018-2022. Increased to $5,000,000 in 2017 and $12,000,000 in 2018-2022, or decreased to $1,000,000 in 2017 and $6,000,000 in 2018-2022. Our analysis found that if revenues decreased by either of our revenue reduction projections, NPV would be negative. Reduction in these revenues is the only analysis that would move the projections from positive to negative. In January 2016, Bob Prescott, the controller for the Blue Ridge Mill, was considering the addition of a new on-site longwood woodyard. The addition would have two primary benefits: it would eliminate the need to purchase shortwood from an outside supplier, and it would create the opportunity to sell shortwood on the open market as a new market for Worldwide Paper Company (WPC). Now the new woodyard would allow the Blue Ridge Mill not only to reduce its operating costs but also to increase its revenues. The proposed woodyard utilized new technology that allowed tree-length logs, called longwood, to be processed directly, whereas the current process required shortwood, which had to be purchased from the Shenandoah Mill. This nearby mill, owned by a competitor, had excess capacity that allowed it to produce more shortwood than it needed for its own pulp production. The excess was sold to several different mills, including the Blue Ridge Mill. Thus adding the new longwood equipment would mean that Prescott would no longer need to use the Shenandoah Mill as a shortwood supplier and that the Blue Ridge Mill would instead compete with the Shenandoah Mill by selling on the shortwood market. The question for Prescott was whether these expected benefits were enough to justify the $18 million capital outlay plus the incremental investment in working capital over the six-year life of the investment. Construction would start within a few months, and the investment outlay would be spent over two calendar years: $16 million in 2016 and the remaining $2 million in 2017. When the new woodyard began operating in 2017, it would significantly reduce the operating costs of the mill. These operating savings would come mostly from the difference in the cost of producing shortwood on-site versus buying it on the open market and were estimated to be $2.0 million for 2017 and $3.5 million per year thereafter. Prescott also planned on taking advantage of the excess production capacity afforded by the new facility by selling shortwood on the open market as soon as possible. For 2017, he expected to show revenues of approximately $4 million, as the facility came on-line and began to break into the new market. He expected shortwood sales to reach $10 million in 2018 and continue at the $10 million level through 2022. Prescott estimated that the cost of goods sold (before including depreciation expenses) would be 75% of revenues, and SG&A would be 5% of revenues. In addition to the capital outlay of $18 million, the increased revenues would necessitate higher levels of inventories and accounts receivable. The total working capital would average 10% of annual revenues. Therefore the amount of working capital investment each year would equal 10% of incremental sales for the year. At the end of the life of the equipment, in 2022, all the net working capital on the books would be recoverable at cost, whereas only 10% or $1.8 million (before taxes) of the capital investment would be recoverable. Taxes would be paid at a 40% rate, and depreciation was calculated on a straight-line basis over the six- year life, with zero salvage. WPC accountants had told Prescott that depreciation charges could not begin until 2017, when all the $18 million had been spent, and the machinery was in service. Prescott was conflicted about how to treat inflation in his analysis. He was reasonably confident that his estimates of revenues and costs for 2016 and 2017 reflected the dollar amounts that WPC would most likely experience during those years. The capital outlays were mostly contracted costs and therefore were highly reliable estimates. The expected shortwood revenue figure of $4 million had been based on a careful analysis of the shortwood market that included a conservative estimate of the Blue Ridge Mill's share of the market plus the expected market price of shortwood, taking into account the impact of Blue Ridge Mill as a new competitor in the market. Because he was unsure of how the operating costs and the price of shortwood would be impacted by inflation after 2017, Prescott decided not to include it in his analysis. Therefore the dollar estimates for 2018 and beyond were based on the same costs and prices per ton used in 2017. Prescott did not consider the omission critical to the final decision because he expected the increase in operating costs caused by inflation would be mostly offset by the increase in revenues associated with the rise in the price of shortwood. WPC had a company policy to use 10% as the hurdle rate for such investment opportunities. The hurdle rate was based on a study of the company's cost of capital conducted 10 years earlier. Prescott was uneasy using an outdated figure for a discount rate, particularly because it was computed when 30-year Treasury bonds were yielding 4.7%, whereas currently they were yielding less than 3% (Exhibit 1). Interest Rates: January 15, 2016 Bank loan rates (LIBOR) 1.15% 1-year Market risk premium Historical average 6.0% Government bonds Corporate bonds (10-year maturities) 0.49% 2.45% 1-year Aaa 1.46% 3.38% 5-year Aa 2.04% 3.85% 10-year A 2.82% 5.05% 30-year Baa Worldwide Paper Financial Data Balance-sheet accounts (in millions of dollars) Bank loan payable (LIBOR +1%) Long-term debt Common equity Retained earnings 500 2,500 500 2,000 Per-share data Shares outstanding (millions) 500 Book value per share $ 5.00 Recent market value per share $24.00 Other Bond rating Beta A 1.10