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* Consider a game played between a non-democratic Government and Civil Society. Civil Society is opposed to the current regime. * The game proceeds as
* Consider a game played between a non-democratic Government and Civil Society. Civil Society is opposed to the current regime. * The game proceeds as follows: first, Civil Society must decide between 'mobilizing' (M) and 'not mobilizing' (~M) in street protests. * After Civil Society chooses between M and ~M, the Government chooses between 'repressing' (R) and 'not repressing' (~R) Civil society. * The game thus has four possible outcomes: MR, ~MR, M~R, ~M~R. * In the outcome ~M~R Civil Society does not take to the streets and the Government decides not to repress. The result is a more inclusive regime in which both Civil Society and the Government receive a of payoff 3. * In the outcome M~R Civil Society takes to the streets and the Government chooses not to repress them. The result is a transition to democracy in which Civil Society receives payoff 4 while the Government receives payoff 1. * In the outcome ~MR Civil Society does not take to the streets, and the Government represses them anyway. The result is an exclusive regime for which Civil Society receives payoff 1 while the Government receives payoff 4. * At the outcome MR Civil Society takes to the streets and the Government represses them, and an open civil conflict ensues. Civil Society wins the conflict with probability p. and the Government wins the conflict with probability 1 p.. * If Civil Society wins this conflict, a transition to democracy occurs and Civil Society receives payoff 4 while the Government receives payoff 0 (for losing the conflict). * If the Government wins this conflict, an exclusive regime emerges, and the Government receives payoff 4 while Civil Society and receives payoff 0 (for losing the conflict). . Problem 4a.) Find the 'critical probability' pc which makes the Government perfectly indifferent between the outcomes MR and M~R. . Problem 4b.) Find the 'critical probability' pc which makes Civil Society perfectly indifferent between the outcomes MR and ~MR. * Note: if you've done this correctly then Pc > Pc. . Problem 4c.) Using backwards induction find the game's outcome when Pc > Pc. . Problem 4d.) Using backwards induction find the game's outcome when pc > Pc > Pc. . Problem 4e.) Using backwards induction find the game's outcome when Pc
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