Question
Consider a project with annual expected income based on approximately $125 million in revenue and approximately $77.5 million in total variable cost. You realize that
Consider a project with annual expected income based on approximately $125 million in revenue and approximately $77.5 million in total variable cost. You realize that both of these numbers are projected, and that your projections may be incorrect. Your boss wants you to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine whether the project is a winner. You are entering an established market, and you know the market size will be 1,000,000 units. You are unsure of your exact market share, the price you will be able to charge, and your variable cost per unit, but have determined a range of possible values for each (in the table below). Your initial investment cost is $165 million, but you already own the plant and equipment, which are fully depreciated. Your fixed costs will be $2 million per year. There are no new NWC requirements, and there will be no salvage value because the project does not have a finite lifetime. The tax rate is 35%. The discount rate is 17%. Use the following table to conduct a full sensitivity analysis for the project. Make sure to include the NPV for the expected outcome in your analysis. Also calculate the best- and worst-case scenarios, but assume that cash flows will increase at 0.5% per year over the life of the project for these two scenarios. What are the results of this analysis? (Show your work; more room on next page if needed; if you have a discounting formula that is the same in each calculation, you can label it, and write the label instead of writing out the formula each time).
Pessimistic | Expected | Optimistic | |
Market Share | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% |
Price/unit | $2410 | $2500 | $2590 |
VC/Unit | $1980 | $1550 | $960 |
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