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Consider a sequence of mutually independent trials, where each trial is equally likely to result in any of the outcomes 1, 2 or 3. The
Consider a sequence of mutually independent trials, where each trial is equally likely to result in any of the outcomes 1, 2 or 3. The sequence ends as soon as the three outcomes have appeared at least once. Given that the outcome 3 is the last of the three outcomes to occur, find the conditional probability that (a) the first trial results in outcome 1; (b) the first two trials both result in outcome 1.
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