Consider the following daily data on demand of a product:

Day of Week $123$

Monday $933787632$

Tuesday $770962496$

Wednesday $647818565$

Thursday $421325517$

Friday $761726676$

Saturday $18899571100$

Sunday $237220892106$

Here is the above data in Excel worksheet:

Suppose an exponential smoothing forecast with noise and seasonality is employed for forecasting with smoothing factors $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$ and $\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}1.$

Points$)$

Use the first two weeks to initialize your data. Then, update your forecast using the third week data and calculate the MAD based on the third week one day ahead forecast.

$(3$ Points$)$

What is the forecast for each day of week $4.$