Consider the following realized annual returns:

Suppose that you want to use the $10-$year historical average return on the Index to forecast the expected future return on the Index. The standard error of your estimate of the

expected return is closest to:

$1\mathrm{.}95\%.$

$19\mathrm{.}4\%.$

$3\mathrm{.}8\%.$

$6\mathrm{.}2\%.$