Consider the following realized annual returns:QUESTION $12$

Use the table for the question$($s$)$ below.

Consider the following realized annual returns:

$\backslash$table$[[$Year End,$\backslash$table$[[$Index$],[$Realized$],[$Return$]],\backslash$table$[[$Stock A$],[$Realized$],[$Return$]]],[2000,23\mathrm{.}6\%,46\mathrm{.}3\%$

Year End Index Realized Return Stock A Realized Return

$200023\mathrm{.}6\%46\mathrm{.}3\%$

$200124\mathrm{.}7\%26\mathrm{.}7\%$

$200230\mathrm{.}5\%86\mathrm{.}9\%$

$20039\mathrm{.}0\%23\mathrm{.}1\%$

$2004-2\mathrm{.}0\%0\mathrm{.}2\%$

$2005-17\mathrm{.}3\%-3\mathrm{.}2\%$

$2006-24\mathrm{.}3\%-27\mathrm{.}0\%$

$200732\mathrm{.}2\%27\mathrm{.}9\%$

$20084\mathrm{.}4\%-5\mathrm{.}1\%$

$20097\mathrm{.}4\%-11\mathrm{.}3\%$

Suppose that you want to use the $10-$year historical average return on the Index to forecast the expected future return on the Index. The standard error of your estimate of the expected return is closest to:

$1\mathrm{.}95\%.$

$19\mathrm{.}4\%.$

$3\mathrm{.}8\%.$

$6\mathrm{.}2\%$