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Consider the following: Returns Scenario Probability Auto Gold Portfolio (75% auto, 25% gold) Recession 1/3 -8 +20 .75(-8) + .25 (20) = -1.0% Normal 1/3
Consider the following: | ||||||||||
Returns | ||||||||||
Scenario | Probability | Auto | Gold | Portfolio (75% auto, 25% gold) | ||||||
Recession | 1/3 | -8 | +20 | .75(-8) + .25 (20) = -1.0% | ||||||
Normal | 1/3 | +5 | +3 | .75(5) + .25 (3) = +4.5% | ||||||
Boom | 1/3 | +18 | -20 | .75(18) + .25 (-20) = +8.5% | ||||||
Expected Return | ||||||||||
Auto | (-8+5+18)/3 = 5% | |||||||||
Gold | (+20+3-20)/3 = 1% | |||||||||
Portfolio | (-1+4.5+8.5)/3 = 4% | |||||||||
Variance | ||||||||||
Auto | (169+0+169)/3 = 112.7 (std. 10.6%) | |||||||||
Gold | (361+4+441)/3 = 268.7 (std. 16.4%) | |||||||||
Portfolio | (25+.25 +20.25)/3 = 15.2 (std 3.9%) | |||||||||
1) Show expected return & variance of a 90% auto, 10% gold portfolio | ||||||||||
2) Show expected return & variance of a 25% auto 75% gold portfolio | ||||||||||
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