Question
Consider the following table, which gives a security analysts expectations for return on the market and two well diversified portfolios of cyclical and defensive over
Consider the following table, which gives a security analysts expectations for return on the market and two well diversified portfolios of cyclical and defensive over the next year, assuming the risk-free rate is 5%:
Probability | Market Return | Cyclical (C) | Defensive (D) | |
Bust | 0.25 | -4% | -10% | 2% |
Boom | 0.75 | 20% | 32% | 14% |
At least one of the two portfolios is mispriced. Construct an arbitrage strategy with an initial position of $1 (either long or short) in the risk-free asset, to give an arbitrage profit at the end of the year. The arbitrage strategy must not have any position in the market portfolio you can only hold positions in the risk-free asset, and the cyclical and defensive portfolios. What is the profit per $1 long (or short) the risk-free asset? Show your work
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