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Consider the following time series data. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 3 6 8 N N 8 3 4 9 4 6 9
Consider the following time series data. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 3 6 8 N N 8 3 4 9 4 6 9 11 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) 12 11 10 Time Series Values Year 1. Year 1, Year 1. Year 1, Year 2. Year 2, Year 2, Year 2, Year 3, Year 3, Year 3. Year 3, Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter ) Quarter 4 Time Period (ii) 12 1 1 10 Time Series Values Year 1. Year 1, Year 1. Year 1, Year 2. Year 2, Year 2. Year 2, Year 3, Year 3, Year 3. Year 3, Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter Time Period(iii 12 Time Series Values Year 1. Year 1, Year 1. Year 1, Year 2. Year 2, Year 2. Year 2, Year 3, Year 3, Year 3. Year 3, Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter ) Quarter Time Period (iv) 12 11 10 Time Series Values Year . Year 1, Year 1. Year 1, Year 2. Year 2, Year 2. Year 2, Year 3, Year 3, Year 3. Year 3, Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter ) Quarter Time Period - Select your answer - v What type of pattern exists in the data? - Select your answer -(b) Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as rollows to develop an equation to account tor seasonal effects in the data: Qtr1 = 1 it Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 it Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even If there is a + sign before the blank (Example: -300). If the constant is "1" it must be entered in the box. Do not round intermediate calculation. )7 = 8.667 , + 3 Qtrl + 4 Qtr2 + 2 Qtr3 (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (b). If required, round your answers to three decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. Year Quarter F: 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 (d) Use a multiple regression model to develop an equation to account for trend and seasonal effects in the data. Use the dummy variables you developed in part (b) to capture seasonal effects and create a variable t such that t = 1 for Quarter 1 in Year 1, t = 2 for Quarter 2 in Year 1,... t = 12 for Quarter 4 in Year 3. If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank (Example: -300). )7= 3.417 + 1.031 Qtr1+ 2.688 Qtr2+ 1.344 Qtr3+ 0.656 t (e) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (d). Do not round your interim computations and round your nal answer to three decimal places. Year Quarter Period Ft 4 2 14
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